KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.06
Hit
44.3%
EV+
-17.1%
Edge
-1.4
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.36
Hit
49.5%
EV+
-7.4%
Edge
-1.1
L10
40%
AWPer
regali
Eternal Fire vs Team Nemesis
RISK · UNDER 28.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP28.5UD28.5
▲ L5 32.8 · L20 30.9LAN UNDER · 52% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
41%
7/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
Previous meeting · vs Team Nemesis
No meeting with Team Nemesis in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.9
6/14 hit at 28.5
Online
30.7
1/3 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm regali is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 88.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: across ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (21.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
27.06
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
44.3%
EV+
-17.1%
Exp. rounds
38.4
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
48.3%666 picks
This player
0%5 picks
Warning: regali is 0-5 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.6 kills vs line 28.5 (7/10 over). Next: vs Nemesis, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.6 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.06 vs line 28.5 → -1.44 (-5.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% under this line
- • Expected 38.4 rounds · 2-0 59% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
15.44
HS/Map
5.91
K/D
1.11
ADR
71
KAST
73.6%
Multi-kill
16.4%
Kills projection
Team Nemesis gives up (35 series)-12.2% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 8:30 AM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5% · live
M1 Mirage
19.6r
M2 Cache
18.8r
Total
38.4r
2-0 sweep59%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)44.8%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 34 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 33.6 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→28.5no change
- First seen28.5Oct 27, 08:04 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
13.6
K/D
1
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.8
K/D
1.18
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16.6
K/D
1.17
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.5
K/D
0.98
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
12.7
K/D
0.97
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
23
K/D
1.44
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | MIBR | 18 Ancient 13-10 | 10 Mirage 10-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-23 | SINNERS | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 12 Cache 16-12 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | JiJieHao | 33 Ancient 22-20 | 11 Inferno 7-13 | 44 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 17 Mirage 13-10 | 20 Cache 14-16 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 20 Mirage 6-13 | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 13 Mirage 8-13 | 16 Cache 13-7 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 16 Cache 13-1 | 40 Dust2 22-20 | 56 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 13 Dust2 4-13 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 16 Dust2 19-15 | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 16 Cache 13-11 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 15 Mirage 12-16 | 11 Cache 13-7 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 21 Mirage 13-8 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 12 Anubis 7-13 | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 14 Cache 13-6 | 27 Anubis 19-17 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 13 Cache 4-13 | 18 Anubis 16-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 5 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Mirage 2-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
