KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.3
Hit
63.5%
EV+
+10.0%
Edge
+3.8
L10
70%
HeadshotsTake
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.97
Hit
62.4%
EV+
+8.1%
Edge
+3.0
L10
50%
Rifler
rdnzao
DENDELE vs Nemiga
TAKE · OVER 16
BEST OVER · PP 16PP16UD16.5
▲ L5 20.2 · L20 17.8
Hit rates at 16 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
56%
10/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.38
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18
8/15 hit at 16
Online
17
2/3 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm rdnzao is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~28 kills at 60.6% HS): 0.585 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.1%) or blowout (22.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.97
Raw edge
+3.0
Cons. hit
62.4%
EV+
+8.1%
Rating
8.9/10
Exp. rounds
45.1
Line
16
Verdict
Take
Plain model
62.4%
0 →
Learned
62.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 14-18
All players · Headshots
56%400 picks
This player
100%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 75.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.6% at this line
Game script fits · 45.1 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 22% (under 40%) · team 41% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 1.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.0 headshots vs line 16.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 61%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.0 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 18.97 vs line 16 → +2.97 (18.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
- • Expected 45.1 rounds · 2-0 56.1% · OT 15.9%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14.72
HS/Map
8.92
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.68
ADR
75.4
KAST
72.3%
HS%
60.6%
Multi-kill
15.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)10.4 · KPR 0.684 · 25r
Map 2 (Cache)8.6 · KPR 0.703 · 20.1r
Required KPR to clear0.585
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.22
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.25%
Final projected kills31.3
× realistic HS% (60.6%)18.97
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16. Model: 75.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.3%
~16 HS · 38r42.7%
Normal44.1%
~19 HS · 44r66.9%
Close maps17.7%
~20 HS · 48r79.1%
Overtime15.9%
~23 HS · 54r90.7%
Match context
Oct 27, 6:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 40.5% · live
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 41% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
25r
+3% KPR here
M2 Cache
20.1r
+6% KPR here
Total
45.1r
2-0 sweep56.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)33.6%
Overtime15.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 36 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Over) · avg 18.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Over | 66.8% | |
| 15 Over | 64.9% | |
| 16 Over | 62.4% | OFFERED |
| 17 Over | 58% | |
| 18 Over | 53.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- First seen16Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
58.7%
K/D
1.1
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
68.1%
K/D
1
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
59.3%
K/D
0.82
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.61
HS%
56.4%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.91
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
65.9%
K/D
1.22
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | G2 | 11 Nuke 13-5 | 14 Ancient 14-16 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-25 | Legacy | 11 Cache 9-13 | 14 Mirage 17-19 | 25 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | FURIA | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 9 Mirage 13-4 | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 8 Mirage 13-16 | 9 Cache 3-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 4 Inferno 13-7 | 12 Anubis 9-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 5 Nuke 10-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Ancient 16-13 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 3 Ancient 13-7 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 12 Cache 13-6 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 9 Cache 13-3 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 10 Cache 7-13 | 15 Mirage 12-16 | 25 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 7 Ancient 8-13 | 4 Cache 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 12 Inferno 14-16 | 10 Cache 13-9 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 9 Inferno 13-10 | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 6 Nuke 13-0 | 9 Anubis 13-3 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 3 Nuke 2-13 | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
