KillsRisk
Line
23.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.19
Hit
41.4%
EV+
-28.2%
Edge
+0.7
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.46
Hit
47.1%
EV+
-18.5%
Edge
-0.0
L10
40%
Rifler · IGL
max
9z vs TYLOO
RISK · UNDER 12.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP12.5UD12.5
▲ L5 14.2 · L20 12.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 12.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±6.8
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
1/1 hit · avg 7 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-04 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Nuke 13-10 · Mirage 13-2 · W
7
Under 12.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
7.8
8/10 hit at 12.5
Online
17.2
1/10 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm max is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 12 HS or fewer (under ~24 kills at 54% HS): below 0.622 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: overtime (3.3%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
12.46
Raw edge
-0.0
Cons. hit
47.1%
EV+
-18.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
37.2
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.1%
0 →
Learned
47.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
44.5%247 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.4% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Under risk — team 77% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 3% (under 22%) · 37.2 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 77% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.4 headshots vs line 12.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 54%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.4 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.6 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.6 rounds per map for these teams
- 39% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.46 vs line 12.5 → -0.04 (-0.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
- • Expected 37.2 rounds · 2-0 64.2% · OT 3.3%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
11.57
HS/Map
6.25
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.62
ADR
70.6
KAST
73.7%
HS%
54%
Multi-kill
15.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.2 · KPR 0.662 · 17.9r
Map 2 (Nuke)5.8 · KPR 0.577 · 19.3r
Required KPR to clear0.622
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.98
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.89%
Final projected kills22.32
× realistic HS% (54%)12.46
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 12.5. Model: 53.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps45.3%
~11 HS · 32r66.9%
Normal40.5%
~14 HS · 41r48.2%
Close maps10.9%
~14 HS · 41r48.9%
Overtime3.3%
~16 HS · 47r37.2%
Match context
Oct 26, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 76.5% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 77% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Inferno
17.9r
-2% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.3r
-14% KPR here
Total
37.2r
2-0 sweep64.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.2%
Overtime3.3%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)45.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Under) · avg 13.4 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Under | 30.9% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 39% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 47.1% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Under | 54.6% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 60.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→12.5no change
- First seen12.5Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
11.1
KPR
0.61
HS%
64%
K/D
0.85
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
9.6
KPR
0.5
HS%
44.2%
K/D
0.73
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
41.8%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
10.9
KPR
0.57
HS%
57.9%
K/D
0.84
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.13
Cache
3 maps
Kills
8.7
KPR
0.39
HS%
50%
K/D
0.57
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.84
HS%
74.2%
K/D
1.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | MOUZ | 1 Dust2 5-13 | 3 Nuke 3-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Vitality | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 1 Cache 10-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | MEIA NOITE | 6 Inferno 13-2 | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | Procyon | 15 Ancient 13-9 | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Procyon | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Mirage 13-1 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 5 Cache 11-13 | 2 Inferno 4-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 3 Nuke 9-13 | 2 Mirage 13-8 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Nuke 13-1 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Procyon | 12 Anubis 13-2 | 4 Ancient 13-2 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | BORRACHEIROS | 8 Inferno 1-13 | 13 Mirage 14-16 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-09 | Isurus | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Procyon | 12 Inferno 13-5 | 4 Nuke 13-9 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Anubis 9-13 | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 15 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 3 Nuke 7-13 | 4 Inferno 3-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Mirage 13-9 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 7 Cache 6-13 | 13 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Galorys | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 4 Nuke 13-10 | 3 Mirage 13-2 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | ex-Keyd Stars | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 10 Dust2 7-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 4 Mirage 11-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
