KillsLean
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.15
Hit
55.4%
EV+
-4.1%
Edge
-2.4
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
19.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.08
Hit
60.3%
EV+
+4.5%
Edge
-2.4
L10
70%
Rifler
HUASOPEEK
9z vs TYLOO
PLAYABLE · UNDER 19.5
BEST UNDER · PP 19.5PP19.5UD18.5
≈ L5 17.4 · L20 17.4
Hit rates at 19.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Medium
±5.18
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
2/2 hit · avg 18 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-04 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Nuke 13-10 · Mirage 13-2 · W
19
Under 19.5 ✓
2026-07-09 · XSE Pro League 2026
Nuke 13-9 · Mirage 7-13 · Split
17
Under 19.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.4
13/20 hit at 19.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm HUASOPEEK is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 19
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Stays under with 19 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 63.6% HS): below 0.809 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
17.08
Raw edge
-2.4
Cons. hit
60.3%
EV+
+4.5%
Rating
7.3/10
Exp. rounds
37.9
Line
19.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
60.3%
0 →
Learned
60.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 17.5-21.5
All players · Headshots
48.6%111 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 70.9% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Under risk — team 77% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 37.9 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 77% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.7 headshots vs line 19.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 64%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.7 against a 19.5 line
Biggest risk: 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
THIN
- • Model 17.08 vs line 19.5 → -2.42 (-12.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
- • Expected 37.9 rounds · 2-0 61.6% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.72
HS/Map
8.72
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.66
ADR
74
KAST
71.1%
HS%
63.6%
Multi-kill
15.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)7.9 · KPR 0.658 · 19.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.6 · KPR 0.74 · 18.6r
Required KPR to clear0.809
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.45
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.82%
Final projected kills25.97
× realistic HS% (63.6%)17.08
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 19.5. Model: 70.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps37.5%
~14 HS · 32r88.2%
Normal44.2%
~18 HS · 41r60.7%
Close maps10.5%
~18 HS · 41r61.9%
Overtime7.8%
~21 HS · 47r40.6%
Match context
Oct 26, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 76.5% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 77% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Nuke
19.3r
-8% KPR here
M2 Mirage
18.6r
+4% KPR here
Total
37.9r
2-0 sweep61.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)37.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 19.5 (Under) · avg 16.7 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
19.5
Nearby lines
| 17.5 Under | 49.9% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 55.7% | below BE |
| 19.5 Under | 60.3% | OFFERED |
| 20.5 Under | 63.8% | |
| 21.5 Under | 66.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 19
Line movement
first 19.5→19.5no change
- First seen19.5Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.6
HS%
55%
K/D
0.84
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.69
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.79
HS%
66.4%
K/D
1.07
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.6
HS%
74.3%
K/D
0.88
Cache
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.56
HS%
65.5%
K/D
0.86
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.74
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.02
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | MOUZ | 12 Dust2 5-13 | 1 Nuke 3-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Vitality | 9 Mirage 10-13 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 15 Cache 11-13 | 8 Inferno 4-13 | 23 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 4 Nuke 9-13 | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Nuke 13-1 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 4 Nuke 7-13 | 6 Inferno 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 4 Cache 6-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 10 Mirage 13-2 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 8 Dust2 3-13 | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 5 Cache 13-3 | 5 Nuke 13-4 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 4 Nuke 6-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 4-13 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 15 Ancient 17-19 | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 22 Mirage 16-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Inferno 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 5 Nuke 13-10 | 11 Inferno 17-19 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ |
