CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsLean
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
38.46
Hit
63%
EV+
+17.9%
Edge
+7.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
20.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.96
Hit
63.9%
EV+
+19.6%
Edge
+4.5
L10
70%
s1nside
Rifler
s1nside
Team Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle Academy
63%HIT CHANCE
LEAN · OVER 31.5
▲ L5 37.6 · L20 35.6
Hit rates at 31.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±10.79
Previous meeting · vs Inner Circle Academy
No meeting with Inner Circle Academy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
35.6
10/20 hit at 31.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Veto confirmed — re-check map order
  • Confirm S1nside is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 35.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 54.5%
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.638 KPR over ~49 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (43.5%) or blowout (16.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
38.46
Raw edge
+7.0
Cons. hit
63%
EV+
+17.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
49.4
Line
31.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
63%
0 →
Learned
63%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
54.2%343 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 74% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 49.4 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 17% (under 40%) · team 55% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 38.2 kills vs line 31.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.79, HS 65%. Next: vs Inner Circle Academy, Online.

Strongest: L10 average 38.2 against a 31.5 line

Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance

    The read
    Signal
    ALIGNED
    The call
    SMALL EDGE ONLY
    Value
    VALUE
    • • Model 38.46 vs line 31.5 → +6.96 (22.1%)
    • • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
    • • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
    • • Expected 49.4 rounds · 2-0 43.5% · OT 16.7%
    Performance (last 40 maps)
    Kills/Map
    17.82
    HS/Map
    11.57
    K/D
    1.2
    KPR
    0.79
    ADR
    82.7
    KAST
    76.2%
    HS%
    64.9%
    Multi-kill
    20.8%
    Kills projection
    Map 1 (Ancient)18.8 · KPR 0.786 · 23.8r
    Map 2 (Anubis)19.6 · KPR 0.761 · 25.6r
    Required KPR to clear0.638
    Base kills (Maps 1-2)38.18
    Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.73%
    Final projected kills38.46
    Inner Circle Academy gives up (83 series)-2.8% vs norm
    Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
    Bars in colour cash the Over 31.5. Model: 74% before the safety haircut.
    1618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466line 31.5
    Lopsided maps16.9%
    ~32 kills · 42r50.5%
    Normal43.9%
    ~37 kills · 47r68.5%
    Close maps22.5%
    ~41 kills · 53r82.7%
    Overtime16.7%
    ~46 kills · 59r91.8%
    Match context
    Oct 23, 6:00 AM CTOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
    HLTV #1VRS #4HLTV #39VRS #30
    Team Spirit Academy 55%45% Inner Circle Academy
    Win chance source: Polymarket 54.5%
    Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
    Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 55% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
    M1 Ancient
    23.8r
    +3% KPR here
    M2 Anubis
    25.6r
    Total
    49.4r
    2-0 sweep43.5%
    Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
    Overtime16.7%
    Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.9%

    2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

    Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Ancient / Anubis

    Recent Maps 1-2 form
    10 series · line 31.5 (Over) · avg 38.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
    31.5
    Nearby lines
    29.5 Over65.6%
    30.5 Over64.6%
    31.5 Over63%OFFERED
    32.5 Over62.1%
    33.5 Over60.9%
    Break-even per leg: 53.5%
    Becomes a PASS at: 35.5
    Line movement
    first 31.5→offno change
    1. Pulled33.5
      Oct 23, 06:12 AM
    2. Moved up32.5 → 33.5
      Oct 23, 05:20 AM
    3. Moved down33.5 → 32.5
      Oct 22, 11:30 PM
    4. Back on board32.5 → 33.5
      Oct 22, 11:25 PM
    5. Pulled32.5
      Oct 22, 11:20 PM
    6. Moved up31.5 → 32.5
      Oct 22, 10:06 PM
    7. First seen31.5
      Oct 22, 12:02 PM
    Map stats
    Nuke
    12 maps
    Kills
    15.8
    KPR
    0.73
    HS%
    60.8%
    K/D
    1.11
    Mirage
    11 maps
    Kills
    18
    KPR
    0.74
    HS%
    69.2%
    K/D
    1.14
    Ancient
    6 maps
    Kills
    19.3
    KPR
    0.82
    HS%
    66.4%
    K/D
    1.35
    Cache
    6 maps
    Kills
    20.5
    KPR
    0.87
    HS%
    61%
    K/D
    1.34
    Anubis
    3 maps
    Kills
    21.7
    KPR
    0.78
    HS%
    72.3%
    K/D
    1.14
    Dust2
    2 maps
    Kills
    11
    KPR
    0.69
    HS%
    54.5%
    K/D
    1.57
    Recent Maps 1-2 results
    DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
    2026-10-22GenOne17 Anubis 9-1318 Nuke 13-1135SplitOver ✓
    2026-10-21Lavked37 Ancient 18-2224 Mirage 16-1461SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-10-19Betclic17 Nuke 13-911 Mirage 10-1328SplitUnder ✗
    2026-10-18mellren15 Nuke 13-919 Mirage 10-1334SplitOver ✓
    2026-10-15The Last Resort19 Ancient 13-711 Anubis 13-630WUnder ✗
    2026-10-13BAKS23 Cache 11-138 Nuke 6-1331LUnder ✗
    2026-10-04FORZE Reload20 Mirage 8-137 Ancient 13-827SplitUnder ✗
    2026-10-04mellren21 Nuke 13-1119 Mirage 13-1140WOver ✓
    2026-10-03Fire Flux17 Nuke 13-637 Anubis 20-2254SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-10-02MAYBE20 Cache 13-922 Nuke 13-1142WOver ✓
    2026-10-01mellren19 Nuke 13-1018 Mirage 5-1337SplitOver ✓BO
    2026-09-29Phantom Academy22 Mirage 13-629 Cache 16-1351WOver ✓OT
    2026-09-27megoshort16 Ancient 5-1313 Mirage 11-1329LUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-26MAYBE23 Mirage 16-1425 Ancient 13-848WOver ✓OT
    2026-09-24Phantom Academy12 Ancient 13-812 Nuke 13-524WUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-23Leo18 Cache 10-135 Nuke 1-1323LUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-21Azuolas20 Nuke 16-1211 Dust2 13-531WUnder ✗OTBO
    2026-09-19Just Players15 Nuke 10-1314 Mirage 14-1629LUnder ✗OT
    2026-09-17Nexus11 Dust2 13-114 Cache 13-825WUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-15BAKS15 Mirage 11-1319 Cache 13-934SplitOver ✓
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