CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.46
Hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.6%
Edge
+1.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.68
Hit
47%
EV+
-18.6%
Edge
+0.7
L10
70%
sliimey
Rifler
sliimey
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
47%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 17
BEST OVER · PP 17PP17UD17.5SL17.5
≈ L5 19.6 · L20 20.0Risk · Edge +0.7 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 17 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
85%
17/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.71
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
1/1 hit · avg 20 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 6-13 · Anubis 13-11 · Split
20
Over 17 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.8
4/5 hit at 17
Online
20.4
13/15 hit at 17
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm Sliimey is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~32 kills at 57.1% HS): 0.73 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (65.3%) or blowout (40.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.68
Raw edge
+0.7
Cons. hit
47%
EV+
-18.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
17
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47%
+4.6 →
Learned
51.6%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 15-19
All players · Headshots
58%257 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 48.3% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • Game script fits: blowout 41% (under 40%)
  • Blowout loss risk — team only 21% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 85.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · blowout 41% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.7 headshots vs line 17.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.81, HS 57%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 18.7 against a 17.0 line

  • 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 17.68 vs line 17 → +0.68 (4.0%)
  • • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
  • • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 65.3% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.5
HS/Map
10
K/D
1.36
KPR
0.81
ADR
88.5
KAST
76.1%
HS%
57.1%
Multi-kill
20.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)8.5 · KPR 0.765 · 19.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)8.6 · KPR 0.734 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.73
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.57
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.06%
Final projected kills29.94
× realistic HS% (57.1%)17.68
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17. Model: 48.3% before the safety haircut.
6789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233line 17
Lopsided maps40.5%
~15 HS · 35r25.4%
Normal28.7%
~19 HS · 45r63.9%
Close maps23%
~19 HS · 44r62.4%
Overtime7.8%
~22 HS · 50r80.9%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #143VRS #132HLTV #142VRS #134
Ground Zero 21%79% Off Chops
Win chance source: Polymarket 20.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 21% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Dust2
19.9r
+1% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
-3% KPR here
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep65.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.5%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Over) · avg 18.7 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
15 Over59.4%
16 Over53.4%below BE
17 Over47%OFFERED
18 Over40.7%below BE
19 Over35%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 17→17no change
  1. First seen17
    Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
16.9
KPR
0.82
HS%
65.1%
K/D
1.18
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.77
HS%
53.6%
K/D
1.26
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.97
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.6
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.79
HS%
61.3%
K/D
1.34
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
22.2
KPR
1.19
HS%
53.2%
K/D
1.54
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.92
HS%
33.3%
K/D
2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-16Off Chops11 Dust2 6-139 Anubis 13-1120SplitOver ✓
2026-10-16Abyssal13 Inferno 13-39 Ancient 6-1322SplitOver ✓BO
2026-10-11Abyssal5 Inferno 8-139 Nuke 7-1314LUnder ✗
2026-10-11FlyQuest10 Anubis 10-1310 Inferno 10-1320LOver ✓
2026-09-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER4 Inferno 8-1318 Dust2 9-1322LOver ✓
2026-09-27Rooster9 Anubis 6-136 Nuke 13-1115SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-26Abyssal10 Inferno 13-119 Dust2 12-1619SplitOver ✓OT
2026-09-25THUNDER dOWNUNDER12 Ancient 4-1311 Dust2 3-1323LOver ✓BO
2026-09-01THUNDER dOWNUNDER6 Dust2 8-132 Inferno 1-138LUnder ✗BO
2026-08-31Arcade15 Nuke 13-39 Dust2 13-1024WOver ✓BO
2026-08-30THUNDER dOWNUNDER5 Nuke 5-1318 Inferno 13-1123SplitOver ✓BO
2026-08-28Rooster8 Anubis 13-416 Nuke 19-1524WOver ✓OTBO
2026-08-26LFO 818 Ancient 13-103 Dust2 13-321WOver ✓BO
2026-08-13Abyssal6 Ancient 13-112 Anubis 13-818WOver ✓BO
2026-08-12Mindfreak4 Inferno 13-614 Dust2 13-618WOver ✓
2026-08-11Abyssal14 Ancient 7-1314 Anubis 0-128LOver ✓BO
2026-08-10Mindfreak13 Nuke 13-105 Anubis 13-418WOver ✓BO
2026-08-06Abyssal4 Mirage 13-016 Dust2 13-1120WOver ✓BO
2026-08-05Time Waves16 Inferno 19-179 Nuke 13-325WOver ✓OTBO
2026-07-19FlyQuest13 Dust2 6-135 Anubis 5-1318LOver ✓BO
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