KillsLean
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.89
Hit
59.7%
EV+
+11.6%
Edge
+2.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.66
Hit
67%
EV+
+25.3%
Edge
+3.2
L10
70%
Rifler
tAk
Brute vs INOX Division
TAKE · OVER 15.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP15.5UD15.5SL15.5
▼ L5 16.2 · L20 17.8
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.81
Previous meeting · vs INOX Division
No meeting with INOX Division in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
17.8
4/6 hit at 15.5
Online · this match
17.8
9/14 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tAk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~29 kills at 55.5% HS): 0.621 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.3%) or blowout (20.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.66
Raw edge
+3.2
Cons. hit
67%
EV+
+25.3%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
15.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
67%
0 →
Learned
67%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
57.1%347 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71.1% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 45.0 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 21% (under 40%) · team 41% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.1 headshots vs line 15.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 55%. Next: vs INOX Division, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 17.1 against a 15.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 18.66 vs line 15.5 → +3.16 (20.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.05
HS/Map
8.9
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.1
KAST
76.5%
HS%
55.5%
Multi-kill
16.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)9.4 · KPR 0.798 · 21.1r
Map 2 (Inferno)9.8 · KPR 0.732 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.621
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.33
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.43%
Final projected kills34.48
× realistic HS% (55.5%)18.66
INOX Division gives up (57 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 71.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~16 HS · 38r49.9%
Normal48.7%
~18 HS · 44r72.5%
Close maps14.1%
~20 HS · 48r83.5%
Overtime16.7%
~23 HS · 54r93.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 41% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.1r
+11% KPR here
M2 Inferno
23.9r
+1% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 17.1 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 70.8% | |
| 14.5 Over | 69.3% | |
| 15.5 Over | 67% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 63.4% | |
| 17.5 Over | 58.5% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.82
HS%
53.4%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.74
HS%
62%
K/D
1.11
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
51.3%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.59
HS%
60.7%
K/D
0.97
Cache
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.82
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.75
HS%
53.5%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.71
HS%
41.7%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BAKS | 8 Cache 8-13 | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 5 Nuke 13-4 | 9 Mirage 3-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 8 Anubis 13-8 | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 12 Inferno 19-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 16 Inferno 16-13 | 9 Dust2 13-16 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 4 Anubis 10-13 | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 8 Mirage 13-1 | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 11 Inferno 10-13 | 8 Cache 16-12 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 9 Mirage 11-13 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 15 Anubis 16-14 | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 4 Cache 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Anubis 13-8 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-18 | Permitta | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Mirage 10-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-17 | Nexus | 9 Anubis 13-11 | 17 Inferno 19-15 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | G2 Ares | 8 Ancient 13-3 | 9 Cache 8-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-04 | G2 Ares | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Inferno 1-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-31 | HOTU | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 29 | W | Over ✓ |
