KillsBetter playRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.18
Hit
53.6%
EV+
+0.3%
Edge
+1.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.88
Hit
50.3%
EV+
-5.9%
Edge
+1.4
L10
50%
Rifler
HUASOPEEK
9z Team vs Team Vitality
RISK · OVER 24.5
BEST OVER · UD 24.5PP25.5UD24.5
▼ L5 27.0 · L20 28.6Risk · Edge +1.7 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 24.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.1
Previous meeting · vs Team Vitality
0/1 hit · avg 17 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 2-13 · Nuke 6-13 · L
17
Under 24.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.6
14/20 hit at 24.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm HUASOPEEK is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 14.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 25+ kills: 0.605 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (65.4%) or blowout (32.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
26.18
Raw edge
+1.7
Cons. hit
53.6%
EV+
+0.3%
Rating
3.3/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
24.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.6%
0 →
Learned
53.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
57%223 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- Game script fits: team 14% to win (20%+)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 14% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · team 14% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 1.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.5 kills vs line 26.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 65%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.5 against a 26.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 26.18 vs line 24.5 → +1.68 (6.9%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 65.4% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.3
HS/Map
9.22
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.69
ADR
75
KAST
72.8%
HS%
64.5%
Multi-kill
16.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)12 · KPR 0.623 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)14.2 · KPR 0.676 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.605
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.37
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.73%
Final projected kills26.18
Team Vitality gives up (100 series)-10.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 24.5. Model: 59.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.9%
~22 kills · 34r31.5%
Normal44.6%
~27 kills · 42r65.1%
Close maps10.3%
~28 kills · 43r69.2%
Overtime12.2%
~32 kills · 49r85.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 8:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 14.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 14% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
-6% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.1r
+2% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep65.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Over) · avg 27.5 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Over | 59% | |
| 23.5 Over | 56.5% | |
| 24.5 Over | 53.6% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Over | 50.3% | below BE |
| 26.5 Over | 46.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 26.5→24.5-2
- Back on board25.5 → 24.5Oct 23, 10:04 AM
- Pulled25.5Oct 23, 10:02 AM
- Moved down26.5 → 25.5Oct 23, 07:53 AM
- First seen26.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.5%
K/D
0.91
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
69%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.79
HS%
64.1%
K/D
1.08
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.57
HS%
73.1%
K/D
0.82
Cache
4 maps
Kills
9.8
KPR
0.51
HS%
74.4%
K/D
0.75
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.74
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.02
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 19 Cache 11-13 | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 28 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 18 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Nuke 13-1 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 7 Inferno 3-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 6 Cache 6-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 22 Nuke 13-10 | 13 Mirage 13-2 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 14 Dust2 3-13 | 14 Mirage 11-13 | 28 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 22 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Ancient 8-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 13 Nuke 7-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 7 Cache 13-3 | 8 Nuke 13-4 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 10 Dust2 2-13 | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 4-13 | 13 Nuke 7-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 25 Ancient 17-19 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 13 Dust2 6-13 | 27 Mirage 16-13 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 21 Inferno 13-10 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 17 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Inferno 17-19 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 16 Nuke 13-10 | 21 Mirage 16-13 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-04 | Alliance | 25 Dust2 14-16 | 8 Inferno 7-13 | 33 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
