CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.96
Hit
52.5%
EV+
-9.1%
Edge
-0.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
18.01
Hit
54.8%
EV+
-5.2%
Edge
-0.5
L10
40%
Spinx
Rifler
Spinx
MOUZ vs Liquid
55%HIT CHANCE
RISK · UNDER 18.5
BEST UNDER · PP 18.5PP18.5UD17.5
≈ L5 19.0 · L20 19.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 18.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.81
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
0/1 hit · avg 23 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 16-13 · Inferno 12-16 · Split
23
Over 18.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
19.6
9/20 hit at 18.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Veto confirmed — re-check map order
  • Confirm Spinx is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 18.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 18 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 60.6% HS): below 0.681 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
18.01
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
54.8%
EV+
-5.2%
Rating
2.6/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
18.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.8%
0 →
Learned
54.8%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 16.5-20.5
All players · Headshots
44.7%190 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.8% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge -0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
  • Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 14% (under 22%) · 44.8 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.1 headshots vs line 18.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 61%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN/Online unknown.

Strongest: L10 average 19.1 against a 18.5 line

Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance

    The read
    Signal
    MIXED
    The call
    PASS
    Value
    NO VALUE
    • • Model 18.01 vs line 18.5 → -0.49 (-2.6%)
    • • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
    • • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
    • • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 14.4%
    Performance (last 40 maps)
    Kills/Map
    16.12
    HS/Map
    9.78
    K/D
    1.28
    KPR
    0.7
    ADR
    80.4
    KAST
    77.2%
    HS%
    60.6%
    Multi-kill
    17.4%
    Kills projection
    Map 1 (Ancient)9.5 · KPR 0.681 · 23.1r
    Map 2 (Inferno)8.9 · KPR 0.681 · 21.7r
    Required KPR to clear0.681
    Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.51
    Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.11%
    Final projected kills30.47
    × realistic HS% (60.6%)18.01
    Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
    Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
    Bars in colour cash the Under 18.5. Model: 56.8% before the safety haircut.
    6789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233line 18.5
    Lopsided maps24.4%
    ~15 HS · 38r80.6%
    Normal44.8%
    ~18 HS · 45r56.8%
    Close maps16.4%
    ~19 HS · 48r44.8%
    Overtime14.4%
    ~22 HS · 54r26%
    Match context
    Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
    HLTV #4VRS #2HLTV #27VRS #22
    MOUZ Liquid
    Win chance source: —
    Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
    M1 Ancient
    23.1r
    -3% KPR here
    M2 Inferno
    21.7r
    -3% KPR here
    Total
    44.8r
    2-0 sweep51.5%
    Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
    Overtime14.4%
    Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%

    2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

    Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno

    Recent Maps 1-2 form
    10 series · line 18.5 (Under) · avg 19.1 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
    18.5
    Nearby lines
    16.5 Under42%below BE
    17.5 Under48.5%below BE
    18.5 Under54.8%OFFERED
    19.5 Under60.1%
    20.5 Under64.1%
    Break-even per leg: 57.7%
    Becomes a PASS at: 18.5
    Line movement
    first 18.5→18.5no change
    1. Back on board18.5 → 18.5
      Oct 24, 10:16 PM
    2. Pulled18.5
      Oct 24, 09:11 AM
    3. Back on board18.5 → 18.5
      Oct 24, 09:10 AM
    4. Pulled18.5
      Oct 24, 09:10 AM
    5. First seen18.5
      Oct 24, 12:00 AM
    Map stats
    Mirage
    10 maps
    Kills
    17.4
    KPR
    0.79
    HS%
    61.5%
    K/D
    1.53
    Cache
    7 maps
    Kills
    14.6
    KPR
    0.7
    HS%
    53.9%
    K/D
    1.26
    Dust2
    7 maps
    Kills
    18
    KPR
    0.84
    HS%
    62.7%
    K/D
    1.4
    Inferno
    6 maps
    Kills
    14.7
    KPR
    0.67
    HS%
    61.4%
    K/D
    1.19
    Ancient
    6 maps
    Kills
    16
    KPR
    0.67
    HS%
    61.5%
    K/D
    1.1
    Nuke
    4 maps
    Kills
    14.8
    KPR
    0.65
    HS%
    62.7%
    K/D
    1
    Recent Maps 1-2 results
    DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
    2026-10-24Liquid15 Ancient 16-138 Inferno 12-1623SplitOver ✗OT
    2026-10-11Vitality6 Cache 8-135 Inferno 7-1311LUnder ✓
    2026-10-10Spirit13 Dust2 13-76 Mirage 5-1319SplitOver ✗BO
    2026-10-09FURIA9 Nuke 13-119 Inferno 13-618WUnder ✓
    2026-10-05Spirit16 Dust2 13-58 Mirage 13-1124WOver ✗BO
    2026-10-04FURIA9 Cache 13-411 Mirage 13-720WOver ✗BO
    2026-10-03M807 Cache 13-912 Mirage 13-619WOver ✗
    2026-09-19FURIA12 Cache 8-1312 Mirage 19-1624SplitOver ✗OT
    2026-09-18Natus Vincere7 Cache 10-1310 Inferno 13-1017SplitUnder ✓
    2026-09-17NRG7 Cache 11-139 Inferno 13-516SplitUnder ✓BO
    2026-09-06Spirit4 Dust2 8-1311 Mirage 13-1115SplitUnder ✓
    2026-09-05Vitality9 Dust2 13-1116 Mirage 13-725WOver ✗
    2026-08-31Falcons4 Nuke 6-139 Ancient 13-613SplitUnder ✓
    2026-08-29Inner Circle10 Ancient 13-46 Mirage 13-516WUnder ✓BO
    2026-08-279z7 Cache 13-46 Nuke 13-713WUnder ✓BO
    2026-08-21FUT10 Dust2 13-165 Ancient 5-1315LUnder ✓OTBO
    2026-08-19GamerLegion12 Mirage 13-1118 Ancient 19-2230SplitOver ✗OT
    2026-08-16PARIVISION9 Dust2 13-413 Inferno 13-1022WOver ✗BO
    2026-08-14FUT2 Ancient 6-1318 Nuke 16-1220SplitOver ✗OT
    2026-08-02Spirit18 Dust2 13-813 Mirage 13-431WOver ✗BO
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