KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.96
Hit
53.6%
EV+
+0.3%
Edge
+0.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.54
Hit
59.8%
EV+
+11.9%
Edge
+1.0
L10
70%
Rifler
VLDN
ex-Zero Tenacity vs ex-RUSTEC
RISK · OVER 29.5
▼ L5 28.2 · L20 29.5Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
9/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.88
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
29.5
9/18 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm VLDN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.677 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50.3%) or blowout (20.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.96
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
53.6%
EV+
+0.3%
Rating
3.1/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.6%
0 →
Learned
53.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56.1%517 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 43.6 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 21% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.0 kills vs line 29.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 55%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 31.0 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 29.96 vs line 29.5 → +0.46 (1.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 50.3% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.58
HS/Map
8.05
K/D
1.15
KPR
0.74
ADR
82
KAST
78%
HS%
55.2%
Multi-kill
19%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)15.8 · KPR 0.735 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.2 · KPR 0.651 · 22r
Required KPR to clear0.677
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.2
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.78%
Final projected kills29.96
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+2.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 52.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.9%
~25 kills · 37r21.8%
Normal40.9%
~30 kills · 44r50.7%
Close maps32.4%
~32 kills · 47r64.1%
Overtime5.8%
~36 kills · 53r83.5%
Match context
Oct 23, 3:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
21.6r
M2 Dust2
22r
-12% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep50.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)38.2%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 31.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 60.7% | |
| 28.5 Over | 56.7% | |
| 29.5 Over | 53.6% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 44.3% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 40.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 23, 03:17 AM
- First seen29.5Oct 22, 12:02 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.35
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
50%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
60.9%
K/D
1.01
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.6%
K/D
1.14
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
54.9%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.95
HS%
25%
K/D
2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | FOKUS | 18 Cache 13-16 | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | FORZE Reload | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 16 Cache 11-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Bushido Wildcats | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 17 Inferno 13-1 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | UNiTY | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 14 Cache 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Just Players | 16 Mirage 13-7 | 14 Cache 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Acend | 18 Cache 13-10 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | MASONIC | 20 Nuke 9-13 | 13 Dust2 13-2 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Leo | 25 Nuke 10-13 | 25 Dust2 13-11 | 50 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Butterfly | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 14 Mirage 13-2 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | EAC | 16 Inferno 13-7 | 11 Mirage 7-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | Black Phoenix | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Cache 13-11 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Illyrians | 13 Mirage 7-13 | 16 Cache 13-2 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Nuclear TigeRES | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 13 Dust2 14-16 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | BIG Academy | 14 Cache 13-5 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | STATE | 15 Inferno 13-9 | 15 Nuke 10-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 20 Anubis 13-8 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | INOX Division | 16 Cache 13-8 | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 10 Inferno 5-13 | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
