KillsRisk
Line
27
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.6
Hit
37.6%
EV+
-34.8%
Edge
-0.4
L10
20%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.82
Hit
46.2%
EV+
-20.0%
Edge
-0.7
L10
40%
Rifler
INS
FlyQuest vs Staqued
RISK · UNDER 13.5
≈ L5 14.0 · L20 13.5LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 13.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
42%
8/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
Previous meeting · vs Staqued
No meeting with Staqued in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
12.5
5/10 hit at 13.5
Online
14.7
3/9 hit at 13.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm INS is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 95.2%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 13 HS or fewer: across ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
12.82
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
46.2%
EV+
-20.0%
Exp. rounds
39.2
Line
13.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
47.3%471 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.4 headshots vs line 13.5 (6/10 over). Next: vs Staqued, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.4 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.82 vs line 13.5 → -0.68 (-5.0%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% under this line
- • Expected 39.2 rounds · 2-0 75.2% · OT 10.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.03
HS/Map
6.76
K/D
1.1
ADR
78.3
KAST
77.8%
Multi-kill
17.7%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 95.2%
M1 Ancient
19.4r
M2 Inferno
19.8r
Total
39.2r
2-0 sweep75.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime10.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)47.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 4 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Under) · avg 12.4 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Line movement
first 13.5→offno change
- Pulled13.5Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board13.5 → 13.5Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled13.5Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen13.5Oct 26, 10:58 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
13.5
K/D
1.01
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
13.1
K/D
1.04
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
14.4
K/D
1.11
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
14
K/D
0.9
Cache
3 maps
Kills
17
K/D
1.82
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
14.5
K/D
1.61
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 7 Ancient 7-13 | 3 Dust2 13-6 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-17 | NEXVOID | 7 Ancient 14-16 | 9 Dust2 13-2 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 8 Anubis 13-1 | 6 Inferno 13-6 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 11 Cache 13-8 | 5 Inferno 13-9 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 9 Inferno 19-16 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Abyssal | 2 Dust2 13-6 | 5 Inferno 13-8 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Ground Zero | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 6 Inferno 13-10 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Abyssal | 2 Dust2 13-4 | 8 Inferno 13-8 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 3 Inferno 13-4 | 4 Dust2 13-9 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 10 Inferno 13-2 | 6 Ancient 13-4 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Rooster | 10 Anubis 13-8 | 14 Nuke 13-3 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | LFO 8 | 6 Cache 13-3 | 5 Dust2 13-4 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Rare Atom | 10 Dust2 19-17 | 4 Anubis 10-13 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | DEPO | 3 Anubis 13-6 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Kaleido | 10 Cache 13-5 | 5 Anubis 13-4 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Rare Atom | 8 Dust2 6-13 | 10 Anubis 16-14 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | NEXVOID | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 10 Anubis 13-11 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-19 | Ground Zero | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 3 Anubis 13-5 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 3 Nuke 13-1 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
