KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.34
Hit
43.8%
EV+
-18.0%
Edge
-1.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.22
Hit
50.7%
EV+
-5.1%
Edge
-0.3
L10
70%
AWPer
aidKiT
Brute vs BakS eSports
RISK · UNDER 32.5
▲ L5 36.2 · L20 31.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1L10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 32.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.5
Previous meeting · vs BakS eSports
No meeting with BakS eSports in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
29
7/10 hit at 32.5
Online · this match
34.4
5/10 hit at 32.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm aidKiT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 50.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 32 kills or fewer: below 0.745 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
31.34
Raw edge
-1.2
Cons. hit
43.8%
EV+
-18.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
32.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.8%
0 →
Learned
43.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
46.5%230 picks
This player
25%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 4/10 at this line · projection 3.7 from his L10 avg · blocked
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 14% (under 22%) · 43.6 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 51% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 3.7 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 35.0 kills vs line 32.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.78, HS 33%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 35.0 against a 32.5 line
Biggest risk: 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.34 vs line 32.5 → -1.16 (-3.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 52.2% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.85
HS/Map
5.17
K/D
1.29
KPR
0.78
ADR
76.3
KAST
76.6%
HS%
32.6%
Multi-kill
21.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)15.2 · KPR 0.719 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)16.1 · KPR 0.722 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.745
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.41
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.24%
Final projected kills31.34
BakS eSports gives up (31 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 32.5. Model: 57.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29%
~26 kills · 37r87.8%
Normal44.3%
~32 kills · 44r55.4%
Close maps12.3%
~34 kills · 47r44.3%
Overtime14.4%
~38 kills · 53r20%
Match context
Oct 23, 12:00 PM CTOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 50.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 51% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
21.2r
-5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.4r
-4% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep52.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Under) · avg 35.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Nearby lines
| 30.5 Under | 34.5% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 40.2% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 43.8% | OFFERED |
| 33.5 Under | 49.4% | below BE |
| 34.5 Under | 52.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 32.5
Line movement
first 32.5→offno change
- Pulled32.5Oct 23, 12:12 PM
- Back on board32.5 → 32.5Oct 23, 12:11 PM
- Pulled32.5Oct 23, 12:11 PM
- First seen32.5Oct 22, 12:02 PM
Map stats
Mirage
13 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
28.9%
K/D
1.28
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.73
HS%
35.5%
K/D
1.32
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
32.3%
K/D
1.25
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
20.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
37%
K/D
1.47
Cache
4 maps
Kills
19.8
KPR
0.84
HS%
29.1%
K/D
1.49
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
40%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.67
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1.1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 15 Nuke 13-4 | 8 Mirage 3-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 14 Anubis 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 31 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 19 Mirage 13-16 | 22 Inferno 19-16 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 24 Inferno 13-6 | 21 Mirage 13-5 | 45 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 21 Inferno 16-13 | 20 Dust2 13-16 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 18 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Mirage 10-13 | 30 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 10 Mirage 13-1 | 23 Dust2 13-5 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 15 Mirage 6-13 | 14 Dust2 13-9 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 14 Inferno 10-13 | 25 Cache 16-12 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 21 Dust2 13-10 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 11 Mirage 11-13 | 13 Ancient 9-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 19 Anubis 16-14 | 22 Mirage 13-8 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 18 Cache 13-11 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 16 Anubis 13-8 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 15 Cache 7-13 | 11 Anubis 9-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 18 Anubis 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 30 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 17 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 10 Mirage 3-13 | 7 Nuke 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | Acend | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 11 Mirage 13-5 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 19 Dust2 13-10 | 21 Cache 13-9 | 40 | W | Over ✗ |
