AWPer
arTisT
The Last Resort vs G2 Ares
LEAN · UNDER 28.5
▼ L5 24.2 · L20 29.8LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
67%
2/3
Volatility
Medium
±6.58
Previous meeting · vs G2 Ares
2/3 hit · avg 30 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 13-10 · Inferno 8-13 · Split
20
Under 28.5 ✓
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 11-13 · Cache 8-13 · L
27
Under 28.5 ✓
2026-09-04 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 8
Inferno 13-9 · Cache 19-17 · W
43
Over 28.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
39
0/2 hit at 28.5
Online
28.8
11/18 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm arTisT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.688 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.74
Raw edge
-2.8
Cons. hit
53.3%
EV+
-0.3%
Rating
4.7/10
Exp. rounds
41.4
Line
28.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
53.3%
0 →
Learned
53.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
44.2%514 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 17% (under 22%) · 41.4 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 24% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 2.4 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.1 kills vs line 28.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 32%. Next: vs G2 Ares, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.1 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.74 vs line 28.5 → -2.76 (-9.7%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 41.4 rounds · 2-0 60.8% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.9
HS/Map
4.8
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.66
ADR
69.9
KAST
70.2%
HS%
32.2%
Multi-kill
15.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)14.6 · KPR 0.695 · 21r
Map 2 (Anubis)11.1 · KPR 0.545 · 20.4r
Required KPR to clear0.688
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.71
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.10%
Final projected kills25.74
G2 Ares gives up (69 series)+9.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 66.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.7%
~22 kills · 35r89.9%
Normal49.8%
~26 kills · 42r68.2%
Close maps5.8%
~28 kills · 44r58.1%
Overtime16.7%
~31 kills · 50r34.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 7:00 AM CTLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 24% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Inferno
21r
+9% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.4r
-15% KPR here
Total
41.4r
2-0 sweep60.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 28.1 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 44.3% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 49.9% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 53.3% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 56.3% | |
| 30.5 Under | 58.7% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 07:12 AM
- First seen28.5Oct 23, 06:11 PM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.66
HS%
34.7%
K/D
1
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
30.3%
K/D
1.16
Cache
6 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.57
HS%
28.2%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.79
HS%
31.4%
K/D
1.33
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
36.5%
K/D
0.87
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.47
HS%
26.7%
K/D
0.71
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.8
HS%
40.6%
K/D
0.94
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Aces | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 11 Cache 9-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Sökerorg | 17 Ancient 13-4 | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Spirit Academy | 15 Ancient 7-13 | 6 Anubis 6-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | G2 Ares | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 11 Inferno 8-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Privateer | 13 Ancient 13-8 | 13 Cache 8-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Saint Sinners | 21 Mirage 5-13 | 12 Inferno 13-6 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Privateer | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 24 Nuke 13-8 | 43 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Famalicão | 17 Inferno 10-13 | 14 Ancient 7-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | G2 Ares | 19 Inferno 11-13 | 8 Cache 8-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Nexus | 7 Cache 5-13 | 19 Ancient 16-14 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-19 | Ryvex | 19 Inferno 8-13 | 19 Dust2 13-3 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-11 | SINNERS | 6 Dust2 2-13 | 9 Inferno 6-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 23 Cache 16-14 | 25 Inferno 16-13 | 48 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | MOUZ NXT | 12 Anubis 13-11 | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | G2 Ares | 20 Inferno 13-9 | 23 Cache 19-17 | 43 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | Leo | 11 Nuke 5-13 | 11 Ancient 6-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Privateer | 24 Nuke 16-14 | 16 Dust2 13-9 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-19 | OG | 16 Nuke 10-13 | 4 Dust2 2-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-18 | Color | 20 Ancient 13-16 | 7 Dust2 2-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-18 | Strael Bora | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 28 Nuke 19-17 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
