KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.53
Hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.4%
Edge
+1.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.51
Hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.1%
Edge
+2.0
L10
70%
Rifler
foggers
Rooster vs Abyssal
RISK · OVER 28.5
≈ L5 27.2 · L20 27.8
Hit rates at 28.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
37%
7/19
H2H
14%
1/7
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Abyssal
1/7 hit · avg 24.7 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-25 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: Oceania - Cup 2
Mirage 11-13 · Inferno 15-19 · L
25
Under 28.5 ✗
2026-08-13 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Ancient 1-13 · Anubis 8-13 · L
14
Under 28.5 ✗
2026-08-10 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Mirage 13-2 · Dust2 13-6 · W
28
Under 28.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18
0/2 hit at 28.5
Online
28.9
7/17 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm foggers is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.0%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: across ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (59.1%) or blowout (26.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.53
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.4%
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Over 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
51.5%658 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.3 kills vs line 28.5 (6/10 over). Next: vs Abyssal, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.3 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.53 vs line 28.5 → +1.03 (3.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 59.1% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.78
HS/Map
7.7
K/D
0.98
ADR
79.6
KAST
75.5%
Multi-kill
19.3%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 44.0%
M1 Inferno
22.9r
M2 Mirage
19.8r
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep59.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 8 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 16 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Over) · avg 31.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.6
K/D
1.06
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
15.8
K/D
1.12
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
12.3
K/D
0.8
Cache
6 maps
Kills
16
K/D
1.17
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
9.7
K/D
0.74
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
15.3
K/D
0.82
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
10.5
K/D
0.88
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
11.5
K/D
0.79
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | NEXVOID | 8 Cache 7-13 | 11 Inferno 5-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | MARKandLARRY | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 16 Cache 13-5 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Fruju | 16 Inferno 13-3 | 10 Cache 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | LFO 8 | 20 Cache 13-8 | 15 Anubis 13-7 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Abyssal | 9 Mirage 11-13 | 16 Inferno 15-19 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | MARKandLARRY | 18 Cache 13-8 | 20 Mirage 13-5 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14 Nuke 7-13 | 12 Inferno 7-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Fruju | 24 Inferno 13-7 | 24 Cache 13-9 | 48 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | MARKandLARRY | 20 Dust2 16-12 | 16 Mirage 11-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-28 | MARKandLARRY | 13 Nuke 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-4 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | Abyssal | 6 Ancient 1-13 | 8 Anubis 8-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-10 | Abyssal | 13 Mirage 13-2 | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | Abyssal | 18 Mirage 13-6 | 22 Inferno 16-14 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-06 | Ground Zero | 6 Mirage 0-13 | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Arcade | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 13 Nuke 7-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Abyssal | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 8 Mirage 13-6 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | MARKandLARRY | 12 Inferno 13-7 | 10 Overpass 6-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Abyssal | 11 Overpass 13-6 | 12 Nuke 7-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-08 | Abyssal | 13 Inferno 13-2 | 13 Nuke 13-9 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
