KillsRisk
Line
34.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.67
Hit
48.5%
EV+
-9.2%
Edge
+0.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.09
Hit
52.5%
EV+
-1.7%
Edge
+0.6
L10
40%
AWPer
sl3nd
Infinite Gaming vs Brute
RISK · OVER 34.5
BEST OVER · UD 34.5PP34.5UD34.5SL35.5
▼ L5 31.8 · L20 35.4Risk · Edge +0.2 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 34.5 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±8.4
Previous meeting · vs Brute
No meeting with Brute in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
35.2
5/13 hit at 34.5
Online · this match
35.6
3/7 hit at 34.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm sl3nd is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 34.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 46.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 35+ kills: 0.713 KPR over ~48 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (63%) or blowout (16.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
34.67
Raw edge
+0.2
Cons. hit
48.5%
EV+
-9.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
48.4
Line
34.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.5%
0 →
Learned
48.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 32.5-36.5
All players · Kills
54.2%59 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 48.4 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 17% (under 40%) · team 46% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 0.4 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 35.1 kills vs line 35.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 32%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 35.1 against a 35.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 34.67 vs line 34.5 → +0.17 (0.5%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 48.4 rounds · 2-0 63% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.68
HS/Map
5.65
K/D
1.19
KPR
0.76
ADR
81.8
KAST
69.6%
HS%
32%
Multi-kill
20.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)17.1 · KPR 0.697 · 24.5r
Map 2 (Ancient)17.5 · KPR 0.73 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.713
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.51
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.47%
Final projected kills34.67
Brute gives up (32 series)-5.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 34.5. Model: 50.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps16.8%
~29 kills · 41r21.2%
Normal52.4%
~34 kills · 47r44.5%
Close maps16.4%
~37 kills · 52r61.3%
Overtime14.4%
~41 kills · 58r79.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 10:00 AM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 46.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 46% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.5r
-5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
23.9r
Total
48.4r
2-0 sweep63%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 34.5 (Over) · avg 35.1 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
34.5
Nearby lines
| 32.5 Over | 59.2% | |
| 33.5 Over | 53.3% | below BE |
| 34.5 Over | 48.5% | OFFERED |
| 35.5 Over | 45.7% | below BE |
| 36.5 Over | 42.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 34.5
Line movement
first 35.5→34.5-1
- Moved down35.5 → 34.5Oct 24, 01:13 PM
- First seen35.5Oct 24, 08:02 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.71
HS%
35.3%
K/D
1.06
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.75
HS%
29.1%
K/D
1.2
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.86
HS%
29.8%
K/D
1.41
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
19.6
KPR
0.76
HS%
37.8%
K/D
1.14
Cache
4 maps
Kills
18.5
KPR
0.8
HS%
28.4%
K/D
1.19
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
28.8%
K/D
1.4
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Envy | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 10 Dust2 1-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Eternal Fire | 4 Cache 1-13 | 29 Dust2 20-22 | 33 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-09 | WBT | 17 Dust2 9-13 | 11 Ancient 6-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | G2 Ares | 18 Inferno 7-13 | 26 Ancient 14-16 | 44 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | SAW | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 25 Ancient 13-16 | 34 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Wildcard | 15 Inferno 13-11 | 18 Mirage 13-8 | 33 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | UNiTY | 24 Inferno 11-13 | 13 Mirage 7-13 | 37 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | SAW | 20 Cache 13-8 | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | RBLS | 18 Nuke 13-8 | 14 Ancient 13-8 | 32 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Fluxo | 40 Mirage 20-22 | 13 Dust2 3-13 | 53 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-26 | GenOne | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 33 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | NT | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 21 Dust2 19-16 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | SAW | 22 Inferno 9-13 | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 34 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Honvéd | 16 Inferno 5-13 | 23 Dust2 11-13 | 39 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-07 | INOX Division | 17 Ancient 10-13 | 16 Nuke 10-13 | 33 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | QUAZAR | 19 Cache 13-9 | 12 Dust2 5-13 | 31 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | Phantom | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | Nuclear TigeRES | 18 Inferno 4-13 | 13 Dust2 13-9 | 31 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | 3DMAX | 23 Nuke 7-13 | 31 Cache 16-19 | 54 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Black Phoenix | 23 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Mirage 13-10 | 40 | W | Over ✓ |
