KillsPlayable
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.3
Hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.3%
Edge
+3.3
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.75
Hit
61%
EV+
+5.7%
Edge
+2.3
L10
50%
Rifler
Kursy
Envy vs GamerLegion
PLAYABLE · OVER 17.5
BEST OVER · PP 17.5PP17.5UD18.5SL18.5
▲ L5 20.2 · L20 18.9
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
58%
11/19
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±4.07
Previous meeting · vs GamerLegion
0/1 hit · avg 17 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-27 · 1win Private Club 1
Ancient 5-13 · Dust2 13-11 · Split
17
Under 17.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
19.9
6/11 hit at 17.5
Online
17.6
5/8 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Kursy is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~30 kills at 59.3% HS): 0.621 KPR over ~48 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.2%) or blowout (23.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
19.75
Raw edge
+2.3
Cons. hit
61%
EV+
+5.7%
Rating
8.3/10
Exp. rounds
47.5
Line
17.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
61%
0 →
Learned
61%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
55.6%340 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 57.9% at this line
Game script fits · 47.5 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 23% (under 40%) · team 61% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.8 headshots vs line 17.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 59%. Next: vs GamerLegion, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.8 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 19.75 vs line 17.5 → +2.25 (12.9%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 47.5 rounds · 2-0 53.2% · OT 19.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
15.97
HS/Map
9.47
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.72
ADR
79.2
KAST
72.9%
HS%
59.3%
Multi-kill
17.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)11 · KPR 0.735 · 25r
Map 2 (Ancient)8.8 · KPR 0.655 · 22.5r
Required KPR to clear0.621
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.11
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.57%
Final projected kills33.3
× realistic HS% (59.3%)19.75
GamerLegion gives up (65 series)-3.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17.5. Model: 71% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.4%
~17 HS · 40r39.7%
Normal44.4%
~19 HS · 46r64.2%
Close maps12.4%
~21 HS · 51r77.5%
Overtime19.8%
~24 HS · 57r89.5%
Match context
Oct 27, 3:00 PM CTLANTesla Cup 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 60.5% · live
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 61% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Cache
25r
+5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.5r
-7% KPR here
Total
47.5r
2-0 sweep53.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)32.2%
Overtime19.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 22 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 18.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Over | 66.3% | |
| 16.5 Over | 65% | |
| 17.5 Over | 61% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Over | 57.1% | below BE |
| 19.5 Over | 51.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 17.5→17.5no change
- First seen17.5Oct 25, 10:11 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
59.1%
K/D
1.09
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.66
HS%
59.8%
K/D
0.9
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.76
HS%
56.6%
K/D
1.09
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.69
HS%
60%
K/D
1.1
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.57
HS%
59.4%
K/D
0.84
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | FaZe | 7 Ancient 5-13 | 13 Dust2 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 14 Ancient 13-8 | 8 Dust2 13-1 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | BASEMENT BOYS | 15 Ancient 10-13 | 12 Cache 8-13 | 27 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | MIBR | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 6 Ancient 5-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | HEROIC | 12 Cache 14-16 | 8 Inferno 13-8 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | GamerLegion | 6 Ancient 5-13 | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Alliance | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 11 Nuke 14-16 | 5 Cache 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-23 | Luminosity | 8 Cache 13-11 | 14 Dust2 19-16 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-22 | Inner Circle | 5 Ancient 7-13 | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | 3DMAX | 20 Inferno 16-14 | 11 Ancient 14-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | 3DMAX | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | 3DMAX | 14 Cache 13-16 | 6 Nuke 13-3 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-09 | 3DMAX | 10 Cache 13-2 | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | 3DMAX | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 13 Anubis 17-19 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | 3DMAX | 12 Nuke 13-7 | 20 Cache 19-16 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | 3DMAX | 13 Nuke 13-10 | 6 Inferno 13-0 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | MIBR | 8 Cache 8-13 | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | 3DMAX | 8 Cache 13-8 | 2 Inferno 5-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
