KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.22
Hit
55.8%
EV+
+4.4%
Edge
-3.3
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.46
Hit
43.4%
EV+
-18.8%
Edge
-1.0
L10
30%
Rifler · IGL
Krabeni
FUT Esports vs TyLoo
RISK · UNDER 16.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP16.5UD16.5SL16.5
▲ L5 18.4 · L20 16.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.32
Previous meeting · vs TyLoo
No meeting with TyLoo in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.4
8/16 hit at 16.5
Online
15.5
3/4 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Krabeni is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 78.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 56.8% HS): below 0.721 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.46
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
43.4%
EV+
-18.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.3
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.4%
0 →
Learned
43.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
43.5%416 picks
This player
50%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 79% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 30% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 40.3 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 79% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 3/10 at this line · projection 1.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.3 headshots vs line 16.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 57%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.3 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.46 vs line 16.5 → -1.04 (-6.3%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 30% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 40.3 rounds · 2-0 55% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.25
HS/Map
8.1
K/D
0.91
KPR
0.7
ADR
78.8
KAST
73.5%
HS%
56.8%
Multi-kill
16%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.8 · KPR 0.717 · 19.3r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.7 · KPR 0.647 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.721
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.42
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.72%
Final projected kills27.22
× realistic HS% (56.8%)15.46
TyLoo gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 62.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~13 HS · 34r83.1%
Normal53.4%
~16 HS · 41r58.7%
Close maps14.7%
~17 HS · 43r51.3%
Overtime7.8%
~19 HS · 49r30.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 2:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 78.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 19 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 79% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
19.3r
-1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21r
-10% KPR here
Total
40.3r
2-0 sweep55%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 17.3 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 27.2% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 34.3% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 43.4% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 57.4% | |
| 18.5 Under | 61.3% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- First seen16.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
56.7%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
53.6%
K/D
0.78
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.81
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.19
Overpass
4 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.52
HS%
65%
K/D
0.67
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.6%
K/D
0.92
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.78
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.62
HS%
53.3%
K/D
0.88
Cache
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.78
HS%
72.2%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 3 Nuke 13-6 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 14 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Anubis 13-3 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 13 Cache 13-10 | 9 Anubis 13-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 16-13 | 7 Ancient 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 8 Nuke 12-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-19 | Poland | 9 Anubis 9-13 | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-19 | Kosovo | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-15 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 2 Dust2 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | MOUZ | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 9 Nuke 10-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-13 | B8 | 7 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-12 | G2 | 4 Overpass 5-13 | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-5 | 5 Overpass 2-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 12 Anubis 13-11 | 3 Overpass 7-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | B8 | 6 Ancient 7-13 | 14 Overpass 11-13 | 20 | L | Over ✗ |
