KillsRisk
Line
28
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.83
Hit
36.9%
EV+
-36.1%
Edge
+0.8
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.51
Hit
52.4%
EV+
-9.2%
Edge
-1.0
L10
60%
AWPer
AccuracyTG
NEXVOID vs Off Chops
RISK · UNDER 9.5
PP9.5
▼ L5 7.2 · L20 8.8Risk · Edge -1.0 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.16
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
0/1 hit · avg 14 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-18 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 19-17 · Inferno 13-9 · W
14
Over 9.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
8.1
9/13 hit at 9.5
Online
10
4/7 hit at 9.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm AccuracyTG is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~34 kills at 29.5% HS): below 0.742 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.51
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
52.4%
EV+
-9.2%
Rating
4/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.4%
0 →
Learned
52.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
50.7%140 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 12% (under 22%) · 43.4 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.4 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 8.1 headshots vs line 9.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 29%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 8.1 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 8.51 vs line 9.5 → -0.99 (-10.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 58.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.85
HS/Map
4.38
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.65
ADR
62.6
KAST
71.9%
HS%
29.5%
Multi-kill
15.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)4.2 · KPR 0.633 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)4.3 · KPR 0.7 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.742
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.88
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills28.83
× realistic HS% (29.5%)8.51
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 59.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.1%
~7 HS · 37r76.3%
Normal54.4%
~9 HS · 44r63.3%
Close maps10.3%
~9 HS · 46r58.3%
Overtime12.2%
~10 HS · 52r47.2%
Match context
Oct 27, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
22.4r
-3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21r
+8% KPR here
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep58.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 16 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 8.1 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 39% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 44.7% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 52.4% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 58.9% | |
| 11.5 Under | 62.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→9.5no change
- First seen9.5Oct 26, 09:41 PM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
28.4%
K/D
1.02
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
36.2%
K/D
1.29
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
30.5%
K/D
0.99
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
30.2%
K/D
1.06
Cache
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
20.8%
K/D
1.3
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.65
HS%
10.7%
K/D
0.9
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Ground Zero | 7 Ancient 13-11 | 3 Anubis 13-8 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 8 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Ancient 11-13 | 13 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 3 Dust2 13-6 | 1 Ancient 13-7 | 4 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 1 Inferno 1-13 | 1 Cache 13-10 | 2 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 3 Dust2 5-13 | 4 Inferno 13-10 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 1 Ancient 13-7 | 2 Dust2 6-13 | 3 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 10 Dust2 19-17 | 4 Inferno 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 6 Ancient 16-14 | 3 Dust2 2-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 0 Anubis 13-9 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 6 Cache 13-7 | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 1 Ancient 7-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 2 Ancient 13-5 | 6 Inferno 12-16 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 3 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 2 Nuke 13-11 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 10 Nuke 22-20 | 4 Ancient 13-11 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Lynn Vision | 4 Ancient 14-16 | 0 Nuke 5-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | Legion | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Inferno 13-7 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Swing | 3 Cache 7-13 | 1 Inferno 13-4 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 2 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Inferno 13-3 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ |
