KillsBetter playTake
Line
29
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.92
Hit
67.8%
EV+
+17.5%
Edge
+5.9
L10
50%
HeadshotsPlayable
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.75
Hit
63.9%
EV+
+10.7%
Edge
+2.3
L10
50%
Rifler
Zesta
NEXVOID vs Alter Ego
TAKE · OVER 29
BEST OVER · SL 28.5PP29UD30.5SL28.5
≈ L5 29.2 · L20 29.9
Hit rates at 29 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.54
Previous meeting · vs Alter Ego
No meeting with Alter Ego in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.8
7/12 hit at 29
Online
28.8
4/8 hit at 29
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Zesta is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.647 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.1%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
34.92
Raw edge
+5.9
Cons. hit
67.8%
EV+
+17.5%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
29
Verdict
Take
Plain model
67.8%
-4 →
Learned
63.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 27-31
All players · Kills
54.9%368 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 74.5% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 44.8 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 27% (under 40%) · team 57% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.0 kills vs line 29.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 59%. Next: vs Alter Ego, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.0 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 34.92 vs line 29 → +5.92 (20.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 54.1% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.97
HS/Map
8.88
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.71
ADR
75.9
KAST
70.7%
HS%
59.3%
Multi-kill
18.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)17.6 · KPR 0.741 · 23.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)14.6 · KPR 0.702 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.647
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.38
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.52%
Final projected kills32.21
Alter Ego gives up (5 series)-3.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29. Model: 74.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~29 kills · 38r47.3%
Normal50.8%
~36 kills · 46r82.7%
Close maps10.3%
~37 kills · 48r88.5%
Overtime12.2%
~42 kills · 54r96.9%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
23.9r
+5% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep54.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Over) · avg 30.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Over | 70.3% | |
| 28 Over | 69.2% | |
| 29 Over | 67.8% | OFFERED |
| 30 Over | 65.9% | |
| 31 Over | 63.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32
Line movement
first 29→29no change
- First seen29Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
60%
K/D
1.22
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.75
HS%
59.4%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
54.1%
K/D
0.94
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.56
HS%
67.1%
K/D
0.78
Cache
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
56.1%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.45
HS%
70%
K/D
0.71
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 15 Dust2 10-13 | 21 Ancient 11-13 | 36 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 24 Dust2 13-6 | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 4 Inferno 1-13 | 17 Cache 13-10 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 19 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 29 Dust2 19-17 | 16 Inferno 13-9 | 45 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 28 Ancient 16-14 | 8 Dust2 2-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 10 Anubis 13-9 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 15 Cache 13-7 | 11 Inferno 13-5 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 10 Ancient 7-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 17 Ancient 13-5 | 19 Inferno 12-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 14 Inferno 13-5 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 17 Ancient 11-13 | 18 Nuke 13-11 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 20 Nuke 22-20 | 18 Ancient 13-11 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Lynn Vision | 24 Ancient 14-16 | 11 Nuke 5-13 | 35 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | Legion | 25 Dust2 13-6 | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Swing | 9 Cache 7-13 | 19 Inferno 13-4 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Inferno 13-3 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 12 Nuke 11-13 | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Lynn Vision | 11 Inferno 8-13 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ |
