KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.03
Hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.6%
Edge
+0.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.11
Hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.6%
Edge
+0.6
L10
50%
Rifler · IGL
k9izer
BORRACHEIROS vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
RISK · OVER 27.5
▲ L5 30.8 · L20 27.8Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
47%
8/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±9.64
Previous meeting · vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
No meeting with QUINTESSÊNCIA in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
27.8
8/17 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm k9izer is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 68.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.653 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.9%) or blowout (33.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.03
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.6%
Rating
2.3/10
Exp. rounds
42.1
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.8%
0 →
Learned
52.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
57.2%477 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 47.1% at this line
Game script fits · 42.1 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 34% (under 40%) · team 69% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 2.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.6 kills vs line 27.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 54%. Next: vs QUINTESSÊNCIA, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 30.6 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.03 vs line 27.5 → +0.53 (1.9%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
- • Expected 42.1 rounds · 2-0 54.9% · OT 19.2%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
13.91
HS/Map
7.5
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.67
ADR
74.3
KAST
58%
HS%
53.9%
Multi-kill
18.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)15.1 · KPR 0.705 · 21.5r
Map 2 (Anubis)12.9 · KPR 0.627 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.653
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.12%
Final projected kills28.03
QUINTESSÊNCIA gives up (25 series)+1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 52.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.8%
~24 kills · 35r28.8%
Normal40.5%
~29 kills · 43r51.6%
Close maps6.5%
~30 kills · 45r57.6%
Overtime19.2%
~34 kills · 51r73.3%
Match context
Oct 23, 11:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 68.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 69% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.5r
+7% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.6r
-5% KPR here
Total
42.1r
2-0 sweep54.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)25.7%
Overtime19.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 30.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 57.2% | below BE |
| 26.5 Over | 55.1% | below BE |
| 27.5 Over | 52.8% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 50.4% | below BE |
| 29.5 Over | 46% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→offno change
- Pulled27.5Oct 23, 11:00 AM
- First seen27.5Oct 22, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
53.5%
K/D
1.14
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
58%
K/D
0.95
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
54.9%
K/D
0.84
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
52.5%
K/D
0.91
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.62
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.88
Cache
3 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.52
HS%
41.7%
K/D
0.78
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
10.7
KPR
0.51
HS%
59.4%
K/D
0.76
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Bounty Hunters | 8 Mirage 5-13 | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | BORRACHEIROS | 14 Inferno 13-1 | 28 Mirage 16-14 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-09 | Grêmio | 13 Inferno 13-10 | 16 Mirage 13-5 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | BORRACHEIROS | 22 Ancient 16-12 | 11 Anubis 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-10 | paiN Academy | 21 Cache 16-13 | 13 Anubis 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-10 | paiN Academy | 13 Anubis 6-13 | 11 Mirage 13-3 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | paiN Academy | 13 Mirage 13-3 | 11 Dust2 13-7 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | ALKA | 19 Nuke 13-16 | 29 Mirage 16-19 | 48 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-06 | paiN Academy | 11 Mirage 13-8 | 8 Inferno 2-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-03 | Grêmio | 26 Inferno 18-22 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-23 | Fluxo | 4 Cache 3-13 | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-22 | Grêmio | 18 Nuke 16-13 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-18 | Procyon | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 15 Mirage 7-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-14 | paiN Academy | 7 Anubis 5-13 | 11 Cache 11-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | UNO MILLE | 12 Anubis 11-13 | 13 Ancient 5-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-08 | Fake do Biru | 12 Nuke 8-13 | 21 Anubis 13-9 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-06 | Fluxo | 11 Anubis 13-1 | 13 Nuke 7-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
