KillsBetter playRisk
Line
33.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.57
Hit
49.5%
EV+
-7.3%
Edge
+1.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.7
Hit
45.8%
EV+
-14.3%
Edge
+0.2
L10
50%
Rifler
insani
Made in Brazil vs Inner Circle Esports
RISK · OVER 17.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP17.5UD17.5
▲ L5 19.6 · L20 18.8
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
Previous meeting · vs Inner Circle Esports
No meeting with Inner Circle Esports in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.9
8/16 hit at 17.5
Online
22
3/4 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm insani is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 60.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS: across ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.7%) or blowout (20.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.7
Raw edge
+0.2
Cons. hit
45.8%
EV+
-14.3%
Exp. rounds
44
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
50.2%458 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.4 headshots vs line 17.5 (5/10 over). Next: vs Inner Circle, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.4 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.7 vs line 17.5 → +0.2 (1.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Expected 44 rounds · 2-0 55.7% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
18
HS/Map
9.38
K/D
1.18
ADR
92.7
KAST
75.6%
Multi-kill
22.3%
Kills projection
Inner Circle Esports gives up (83 series)-3.7% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 1:30 PM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 60.5%
M1 Ancient
22.8r
M2 Mirage
21.3r
Total
44r
2-0 sweep55.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 20 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 18.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Line movement
first 17.5→17.5no change
- First seen17.5Oct 27, 08:04 PM
Map stats
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
18.9
K/D
1.13
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.1
K/D
1.1
Cache
7 maps
Kills
22.4
K/D
1.3
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
14.3
K/D
0.93
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
18.7
K/D
1.51
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
22.5
K/D
1.45
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Eternal Fire | 9 Ancient 10-13 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-17 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2 Mirage 2-13 | 18 Cache 19-17 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-17 | 100 Thieves | 6 Nuke 13-8 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Astralis | 11 Inferno 8-13 | 18 Cache 16-14 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | BC.Game | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 7 Ancient 7-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Envy | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 3 Ancient 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | BC.Game | 7 Cache 12-16 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 3 Mirage 8-13 | 9 Nuke 11-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | NRG | 12 Cache 13-7 | 8 Inferno 13-2 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | magic | 15 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | FURIA | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Legacy | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 6 Ancient 13-11 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | Alliance | 9 Inferno 13-4 | 9 Cache 13-9 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | BetBoom | 4 Mirage 9-13 | 13 Anubis 14-16 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | 9z | 7 Mirage 13-6 | 12 Nuke 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | The MongolZ | 7 Ancient 5-13 | 12 Mirage 13-10 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | K27 | 8 Cache 6-13 | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-03 | EYEBALLERS | 17 Ancient 16-14 | 9 Inferno 13-8 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | 3DMAX | 13 Cache 13-8 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Eternal Fire | 12 Ancient 16-19 | 15 Inferno 13-8 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
