KillsBetter playTake
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.4
Hit
61.8%
EV+
+7.0%
Edge
-5.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsPlayable
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.08
Hit
59.7%
EV+
+3.3%
Edge
-2.4
L10
70%
Rifler
xeedo
K27 vs B8
TAKE · UNDER 29.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP29.5UD29.5SL29.5
▼ L5 26.2 · L20 28.5LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
68%
13/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.28
Previous meeting · vs B8
No meeting with B8 in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
25.5
3/4 hit at 29.5
Online
29.3
10/15 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm XeeDo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.727 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (3.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.4
Raw edge
-5.1
Cons. hit
61.8%
EV+
+7.0%
Rating
8.9/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
29.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
61.8%
0 →
Learned
61.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
45%500 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 79.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 68.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT 4% (under 22%) · 40.6 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 37% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 2.7 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.1 kills vs line 29.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 58%. Next: vs B8, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.1 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
THIN
- • Model 24.4 vs line 29.5 → -5.1 (-17.3%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 58.4% · OT 3.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.24
HS/Map
8.21
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.63
ADR
71.1
KAST
71.5%
HS%
57.7%
Multi-kill
16.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)14.5 · KPR 0.7 · 21r
Map 2 (Nuke)9.9 · KPR 0.51 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.727
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.68
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.14%
Final projected kills24.4
B8 gives up (46 series)+4.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 79.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.7%
~21 kills · 34r94.6%
Normal60.5%
~25 kills · 42r76.5%
Close maps11.3%
~26 kills · 43r72.5%
Overtime3.5%
~30 kills · 49r50.5%
Match context
Oct 27, 3:00 AM CTLANTesla Cup 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 37% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Cache
21r
+16% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.6r
-16% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep58.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.8%
Overtime3.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 20 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 27.1 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 54% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 60% | |
| 29.5 Under | 61.8% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 63.1% | |
| 31.5 Under | 64% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- First seen29.5Oct 25, 09:40 PM
Map stats
Cache
11 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.75
HS%
60.4%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.49
HS%
52.5%
K/D
0.74
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.78
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.17
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.78
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.1
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
64.9%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.52
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.69
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | fnatic | 17 Ancient 13-11 | 5 Mirage 5-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Metizport | 13 Nuke 11-13 | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Eternal Fire | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 12 Mirage 8-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | SINNERS | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 15 Ancient 10-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | ex-RUBY | 24 Mirage 13-7 | 16 Cache 13-11 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | EYEBALLERS | 4 Nuke 13-7 | 17 Anubis 13-9 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | GamerLegion | 18 Cache 10-13 | 14 Nuke 10-13 | 32 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 21 Ancient 13-6 | 13 Nuke 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | Virtus.pro | 17 Cache 10-13 | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Nemiga | 7 Anubis 13-10 | 18 Mirage 9-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | HEROIC | 22 Ancient 13-9 | 6 Cache 9-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | WW | 14 Dust2 10-13 | 11 Cache 13-6 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Virtus.pro | 13 Anubis 13-5 | 32 Cache 14-16 | 45 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-08 | LP | 19 Ancient 13-5 | 22 Mirage 13-8 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Eternal Fire | 13 Ancient 10-13 | 19 Cache 7-13 | 32 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-03 | MIBR | 10 Cache 13-6 | 12 Nuke 13-6 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | GamerLegion | 16 Cache 4-13 | 12 Nuke 13-5 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | magic | 15 Cache 9-13 | 5 Ancient 1-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | MIBR | 22 Cache 10-13 | 7 Nuke 5-13 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
