CS2 PROP LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.98
Hit
40.1%
EV+
-30.5%
Edge
+1.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.18
Hit
49.3%
EV+
-14.6%
Edge
-0.3
L10
70%
damyo
Rifler
damyo
Off Chops vs Ground Zero
49%HIT CHANCE
RISK · UNDER 15.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP15.5UD15.5SL15.5
▼ L5 14.6 · L20 15.3Risk · Edge -0.3 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Low
±3.87
Previous meeting · vs Ground Zero
2/2 hit · avg 12.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 13-6 · Anubis 11-13 · Split
10
Under 15.5 ✓
2026-03-26 · ESL Challenger League Season 51: Oceania - Cup 2
Dust2 4-13 · Inferno 13-4 · Split
15
Under 15.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.6
3/5 hit at 15.5
Online
15.5
10/15 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm damyo is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 52.6% HS): below 0.751 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.18
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
49.3%
EV+
-14.6%
Rating
1.6/10
Exp. rounds
39.2
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.3%
+8 →
Learned
57.3%
learning 0.5x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
42.7%335 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.3% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge -0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • Under risk — team 81% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 39.2 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 81% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.69) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.7 headshots vs line 15.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 53%. Next: vs Ground Zero, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 13.7 against a 15.5 line

  • 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 15.18 vs line 15.5 → -0.32 (-2.1%)
  • • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
  • • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.4 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +6% KPR
  • • Expected 39.2 rounds · 2-0 63.4% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.55
HS/Map
7.65
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.62
ADR
67.8
KAST
74.1%
HS%
52.6%
Multi-kill
14.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)8.2 · KPR 0.765 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Inferno)6.5 · KPR 0.678 · 18.6r
Required KPR to clear0.751
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.4
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.63%
Final projected kills27.94
× realistic HS% (52.6%)15.18
Ground Zero gives up (5 series)+5.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 56.3% before the safety haircut.
45678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031line 15.5
Lopsided maps36.1%
~13 HS · 33r78.1%
Normal33.1%
~16 HS · 42r45.6%
Close maps20.8%
~16 HS · 42r44.6%
Overtime10%
~19 HS · 48r25.1%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #142VRS #134HLTV #143VRS #132
Off Chops 81%19% Ground Zero
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.0% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.4 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate +6% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 81% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Nuke
20.6r
+16% KPR here
M2 Inferno
18.6r
+3% KPR here
Total
39.2r
2-0 sweep63.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36.1%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 13.7 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
13.5 Under36.8%below BE
14.5 Under43.2%below BE
15.5 Under49.3%OFFERED
16.5 Under55%below BE
17.5 Under59.7%
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
  1. First seen15.5
    Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Nuke
10 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.75
HS%
51.5%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.05
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.63
HS%
55.8%
K/D
0.8
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
47.8%
K/D
0.84
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.81
HS%
56.9%
K/D
1.24
Cache
3 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.88
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.5
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
48.1%
K/D
1.23
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-18NEXVOID7 Dust2 17-197 Inferno 9-1314LUnder ✓OT
2026-10-17Rooster10 Nuke 13-73 Cache 13-213WUnder ✓BO
2026-10-16Abyssal10 Dust2 13-76 Inferno 13-316WOver ✗BO
2026-10-16Ground Zero3 Dust2 13-67 Anubis 11-1310SplitUnder ✓
2026-10-16FlyQuest13 Dust2 10-137 Inferno 16-1920LOver ✗OT
2026-10-13Fruju4 Inferno 13-38 Cache 13-612WUnder ✓BO
2026-09-27Rooster4 Anubis 13-63 Nuke 11-137SplitUnder ✓
2026-09-25Rooster4 Anubis 8-138 Nuke 3-1312LUnder ✓BO
2026-09-23Mindfreak7 Nuke 13-913 Cache 13-120WOver ✗BO
2026-08-30Arcade7 Nuke 13-76 Inferno 3-1313SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-08-29Rooster11 Dust2 12-1612 Mirage 13-1123SplitOver ✗OT
2026-08-28Rooster6 Anubis 4-1317 Nuke 15-1923LOver ✗OTBO
2026-08-26Rooster5 Inferno 13-26 Anubis 13-411WUnder ✓BO
2026-04-19Rooster6 Overpass 9-137 Nuke 13-513SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-04-19Ding Cuts13 Mirage 13-1016 Nuke 13-1029WOver ✗
2026-04-18Abyssal7 Inferno 13-612 Mirage 13-819WOver ✗
2026-04-18Abyssal7 Overpass 7-133 Nuke 8-1310LUnder ✓
2026-03-26Ground Zero6 Dust2 4-139 Inferno 13-415SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-03-25SemperFi8 Dust2 10-134 Mirage 8-1312LUnder ✓
2026-03-23Mindfreak6 Anubis 13-118 Nuke 11-1314SplitUnder ✓
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