KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.31
Hit
48.1%
EV+
-5.5%
Edge
-2.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.37
Hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.7%
Edge
-2.1
L10
30%
Rifler
jottAAA
Eternal Fire vs Nemesis
RISK · UNDER 19.5
PP19.5
▼ L5 18.8 · L20 20.4LAN UNDER · 52% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 19.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
41%
7/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Nemesis
No meeting with Nemesis in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
20.4
5/14 hit at 19.5
Online
20
2/3 hit at 19.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jottAAA is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 87.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 19 HS or fewer: across ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (21.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
17.37
Raw edge
-2.1
Cons. hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.7%
Exp. rounds
38.4
Line
19.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 17.5-21.5
All players · Headshots
54.4%193 picks
This player
25%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.3 headshots vs line 19.5 (7/10 over). Next: vs Nemesis, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 21.3 against a 19.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.37 vs line 19.5 → -2.13 (-10.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 30% under this line
- • Expected 38.4 rounds · 2-0 58.7% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
17.76
HS/Map
10.18
K/D
1.13
ADR
84.1
KAST
73.3%
Multi-kill
18.1%
Kills projection
Nemesis gives up (35 series)-13.9% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 8:30 AM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5% · live
M1 Mirage
19.6r
M2 Cache
18.8r
Total
38.4r
2-0 sweep58.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)44.8%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)35.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 34 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 19.5 (Under) · avg 21.3 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
19.5
Line movement
first 19.5→19.5no change
- First seen19.5Oct 27, 08:08 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
16.7
K/D
1.15
Cache
8 maps
Kills
15.1
K/D
1
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
19.4
K/D
1.15
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
21.5
K/D
1.28
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
18.7
K/D
1.37
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
18.3
K/D
0.95
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | MIBR | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-23 | SINNERS | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Cache 16-12 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | JiJieHao | 12 Ancient 22-20 | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 15 Cache 14-16 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 13 Mirage 8-13 | 8 Cache 13-7 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 6 Cache 13-1 | 20 Dust2 22-20 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Dust2 4-13 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 14 Dust2 19-15 | 16 Mirage 11-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 11 Mirage 12-16 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 17 Dust2 13-8 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 6 Cache 13-6 | 13 Anubis 19-17 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 4 Cache 4-13 | 16 Anubis 16-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 11 Inferno 13-6 | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 7 Anubis 10-13 | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
