KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.53
Hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.4%
Edge
+1.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.51
Hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.1%
Edge
+2.0
L10
70%
Rifler
foggers
Rooster vs Abyssal
PLAYABLE · OVER 14.5
▼ L5 14.2 · L20 15.7
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
53%
10/19
H2H
43%
3/7
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Abyssal
3/7 hit · avg 14 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-25 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: Oceania - Cup 2
Mirage 11-13 · Inferno 15-19 · L
13
Under 14.5 ✗
2026-08-13 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Ancient 1-13 · Anubis 8-13 · L
6
Under 14.5 ✗
2026-08-10 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Mirage 13-2 · Dust2 13-6 · W
17
Over 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.5
0/2 hit at 14.5
Online
16.2
10/17 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm foggers is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.5%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS: across ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (59%) or blowout (26.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.51
Raw edge
+2.0
Cons. hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.1%
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
14.5
Verdict
Playable
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
54.6%544 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.7 headshots vs line 14.5 (7/10 over). Next: vs Abyssal, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.7 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 16.51 vs line 14.5 → +2.01 (13.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 70% over this line
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 59% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.78
HS/Map
7.7
K/D
0.98
ADR
79.6
KAST
75.5%
Multi-kill
19.3%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 44.5%
M1 Inferno
22.9r
M2 Mirage
19.8r
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep59%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 8 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 16 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 17.7 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen14.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.6
K/D
1.06
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
15.8
K/D
1.12
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
12.3
K/D
0.8
Cache
6 maps
Kills
16
K/D
1.17
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
9.7
K/D
0.74
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
15.3
K/D
0.82
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
10.5
K/D
0.88
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
11.5
K/D
0.79
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | NEXVOID | 7 Cache 7-13 | 5 Inferno 5-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | MARKandLARRY | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Fruju | 9 Inferno 13-3 | 5 Cache 13-6 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | LFO 8 | 7 Cache 13-8 | 8 Anubis 13-7 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Abyssal | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 8 Inferno 15-19 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | MARKandLARRY | 8 Cache 13-8 | 13 Mirage 13-5 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 11 Nuke 7-13 | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Fruju | 16 Inferno 13-7 | 15 Cache 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | MARKandLARRY | 12 Dust2 16-12 | 7 Mirage 11-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-28 | MARKandLARRY | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 10 Mirage 13-4 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | Abyssal | 2 Ancient 1-13 | 4 Anubis 8-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-10 | Abyssal | 7 Mirage 13-2 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | Abyssal | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 13 Inferno 16-14 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-06 | Ground Zero | 3 Mirage 0-13 | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Arcade | 4 Mirage 13-10 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Abyssal | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Mirage 13-6 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | MARKandLARRY | 4 Inferno 13-7 | 9 Overpass 6-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Abyssal | 4 Overpass 13-6 | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-08 | Abyssal | 10 Inferno 13-2 | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
