KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.83
Hit
59.5%
EV+
+11.3%
Edge
+1.3
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.22
Hit
61.5%
EV+
+15.0%
Edge
+1.7
L10
60%
Rifler
k0s
INOX Division vs Brute
LEAN · OVER 14.5
≈ L5 15.6 · L20 15.9
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.63
Previous meeting · vs Brute
No meeting with Brute in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
15.9
14/20 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm K0s is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~29 kills at 52.6% HS): 0.625 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.3%) or blowout (29.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.22
Raw edge
+1.7
Cons. hit
61.5%
EV+
+15.0%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.1
Line
14.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.5%
0 →
Learned
61.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
59.1%428 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.7 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 44.1 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 29% (under 40%) · team 59% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.2 headshots vs line 14.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 53%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 15.2 against a 14.5 line
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
VALUE
- • Model 16.22 vs line 14.5 → +1.72 (11.9%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 44.1 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.12
HS/Map
7.95
K/D
1
KPR
0.71
ADR
78.4
KAST
71.8%
HS%
52.6%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)7.3 · KPR 0.649 · 21.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.9 · KPR 0.754 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.625
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.52%
Final projected kills30.83
× realistic HS% (52.6%)16.22
Brute gives up (32 series)-2.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 68.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.4%
~14 HS · 37r39.1%
Normal39.8%
~17 HS · 45r67.9%
Close maps18.6%
~17 HS · 47r74%
Overtime12.2%
~20 HS · 53r87.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 9:00 AM CTOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
21.5r
-6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.6r
+10% KPR here
Total
44.1r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 15.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 66.7% | |
| 13.5 Over | 64.1% | |
| 14.5 Over | 61.5% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 55.2% | |
| 16.5 Over | 48.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 09:12 AM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 07:53 AM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 07:53 AM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 07:52 AM
Map stats
Nuke
10 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
54.1%
K/D
0.97
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.66
HS%
45.9%
K/D
0.96
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.8
HS%
57.6%
K/D
1
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.7
HS%
50%
K/D
1.05
Cache
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.65
HS%
57.9%
K/D
0.94
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.92
HS%
44.4%
K/D
1.33
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Aces | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 7 Nuke 13-8 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Nemiga | 1 Nuke 2-13 | 6 Ancient 10-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Black Phoenix | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | G2 Ares | 7 Ancient 13-5 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | BAKS | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 11 Cache 16-13 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-22 | Vexar | 4 Inferno 7-13 | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 8 Cache 8-13 | 10 Nuke 11-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | SPARTA | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 7 Inferno 12-16 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | UPGRADE | 7 Anubis 13-8 | 6 Nuke 5-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-15 | Drama | 5 Ancient 13-8 | 8 Nuke 5-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Color | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 15 Dust2 14-16 | 22 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-11 | Acend | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 9 Dust2 9-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Black Phoenix | 13 Nuke 13-4 | 4 Dust2 1-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | Nuclear TigeRES | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | The Last Resort | 14 Cache 14-16 | 11 Inferno 13-16 | 25 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | INFINITE | 4 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Nuke 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-07 | PCIFIC | 9 Anubis 13-5 | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-05 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 6 Nuke 13-8 | 4 Cache 3-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | UNiTY | 5 Ancient 13-11 | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | 1win | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 7 Cache 13-8 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ |
