CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
37.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
37.67
Hit
46.7%
EV+
-19.1%
Edge
+0.2
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
24
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.53
Hit
51.3%
EV+
-11.2%
Edge
+0.5
L10
40%
donk
Rifler
donk
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
47%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 37.5
BEST OVER · PP 37.5PP37.5UD38.5
▼ L5 33.8 · L20 37.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1L10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 37.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
37.9
11/20 hit at 37.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Veto confirmed — re-check map order
  • Confirm donk is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 37.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 66.5%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 38+ kills: 0.847 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (46.7%) or blowout (20.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
37.67
Raw edge
+0.2
Cons. hit
46.7%
EV+
-19.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
37.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.7%
0 →
Learned
46.7%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 35.5-39.5
All players · Kills
28.6%7 picks
This player
0%3 picks
Warning: donk is 0-3 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • Edge +0.2 below ±3.0 minimum
  • Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 3/10 at this line · projection 3.3 from his L10 avg · blocked
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 30% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 44.3 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 21% (under 40%) · team 67% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 3/10 at this line · projection 3.3 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 34.4 kills vs line 39.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.80, HS 65%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 34.4 against a 39.5 line

Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance

    The read
    Signal
    MIXED
    The call
    PASS
    Value
    NO VALUE
    • • Model 37.67 vs line 37.5 → +0.17 (0.5%)
    • • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
    • • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
    • • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 46.7% · OT 7.8%
    Performance (last 40 maps)
    Kills/Map
    18.93
    HS/Map
    12.32
    K/D
    1.26
    KPR
    0.8
    ADR
    85.6
    KAST
    72.3%
    HS%
    65.1%
    Multi-kill
    22%
    Kills projection
    Map 1 (Anubis)18.6 · KPR 0.826 · 22.7r
    Map 2 (Ancient)19 · KPR 0.886 · 21.6r
    Required KPR to clear0.847
    Base kills (Maps 1-2)37.87
    Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.52%
    Final projected kills37.67
    BetBoom gives up (64 series)+2.7% vs norm
    Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
    Bars in colour cash the Over 37.5. Model: 51.2% before the safety haircut.
    2021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657line 37.5
    Lopsided maps20.5%
    ~32 kills · 37r15.5%
    Normal44.5%
    ~38 kills · 44r48.7%
    Close maps27.2%
    ~40 kills · 47r65.9%
    Overtime7.8%
    ~45 kills · 53r87.6%
    Match context
    Oct 24, 5:40 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
    HLTV #1VRS #4HLTV #9VRS #7
    Team Spirit 67%33% BetBoom
    Win chance source: Polymarket 66.5%
    Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
    Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 67% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
    M1 Anubis
    22.7r
    +6% KPR here
    M2 Ancient
    21.6r
    +14% KPR here
    Total
    44.3r
    2-0 sweep46.7%
    Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
    Overtime7.8%
    Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%

    2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

    Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient

    Recent Maps 1-2 form
    10 series · line 37.5 (Over) · avg 34.4 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
    37.5
    Nearby lines
    35.5 Over54.4%below BE
    36.5 Over50.7%below BE
    37.5 Over46.7%OFFERED
    38.5 Over40.8%below BE
    39.5 Over36.9%below BE
    Break-even per leg: 57.7%
    Becomes a PASS at: 37.5
    Line movement
    first 39.5→37.5-2
    1. Back on board40 → 37.5
      Oct 24, 04:06 PM
    2. Pulled40
      Oct 24, 05:03 AM
    3. Moved up39.5 → 40
      Oct 23, 11:12 PM
    4. Moved down40 → 39.5
      Oct 23, 11:12 PM
    5. Moved up39.5 → 40
      Oct 23, 11:11 PM
    6. Moved down40 → 39.5
      Oct 23, 11:11 PM
    7. Moved up39.5 → 40
      Oct 23, 11:11 PM
    8. Moved down40 → 39.5
      Oct 23, 11:10 PM
    9. Moved up39.5 → 40
      Oct 23, 11:09 PM
    10. Back on board39.5 → 39.5
      Oct 23, 10:59 PM
    11. Pulled39.5
      Oct 23, 10:55 PM
    12. Back on board39.5 → 39.5
      Oct 23, 10:10 PM
    13. Pulled39.5
      Oct 23, 09:37 PM
    14. First seen39.5
      Oct 23, 07:00 PM
    Map stats
    Dust2
    12 maps
    Kills
    17.5
    KPR
    0.81
    HS%
    61.9%
    K/D
    1.16
    Cache
    7 maps
    Kills
    19.7
    KPR
    0.95
    HS%
    69.6%
    K/D
    1.41
    Mirage
    7 maps
    Kills
    16
    KPR
    0.76
    HS%
    63.4%
    K/D
    1.06
    Ancient
    6 maps
    Kills
    21
    KPR
    0.97
    HS%
    61.9%
    K/D
    1.47
    Anubis
    5 maps
    Kills
    20.6
    KPR
    0.88
    HS%
    68%
    K/D
    1.26
    Nuke
    3 maps
    Kills
    22.7
    KPR
    0.91
    HS%
    70.6%
    K/D
    1.48
    Recent Maps 1-2 results
    DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
    2026-10-11Aurora10 Mirage 9-1318 Anubis 6-1328LUnder ✗
    2026-10-10MOUZ14 Dust2 7-1319 Mirage 13-533SplitUnder ✗BO
    2026-10-09Falcons15 Mirage 13-823 Anubis 13-1038WOver ✓
    2026-10-07M8020 Dust2 13-621 Cache 13-1041WOver ✓
    2026-10-061win14 Cache 5-1315 Anubis 9-1329LUnder ✗BO
    2026-10-05MOUZ5 Dust2 5-1321 Mirage 11-1326LUnder ✗BO
    2026-10-04PARIVISION21 Ancient 11-1314 Dust2 13-635SplitUnder ✗
    2026-10-03ShindeN21 Dust2 11-1326 Nuke 13-1147SplitOver ✓
    2026-09-06MOUZ14 Dust2 13-819 Mirage 11-1333SplitUnder ✗
    2026-09-05Falcons15 Nuke 13-819 Ancient 13-1134WUnder ✗
    2026-08-31FURIA25 Ancient 13-1014 Cache 13-539WOver ✓BO
    2026-08-28G210 Dust2 13-621 Cache 13-931WUnder ✗
    2026-08-26DENDELE24 Ancient 13-824 Cache 13-748WOver ✓
    2026-08-23FUT22 Cache 10-1325 Anubis 16-1347SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-08-22Legacy25 Dust2 13-719 Ancient 13-944WOver ✓
    2026-08-21Vitality22 Anubis 13-1127 Nuke 14-1649SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-08-20B827 Dust2 13-918 Mirage 13-945WOver ✓
    2026-08-15BIG22 Cache 9-1317 Dust2 13-1039SplitOver ✓
    2026-08-13Luminosity18 Ancient 13-329 Dust2 19-1547WOver ✓OTBO
    2026-08-02MOUZ14 Dust2 8-1310 Mirage 4-1324LUnder ✗BO
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