KillsBetter playLean
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.92
Hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.3%
Edge
+2.4
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.31
Hit
43.9%
EV+
-23.9%
Edge
+0.3
L10
70%
Rifler
xfl0ud
FUT vs Vitality
LEAN · OVER 24.5
BEST OVER · PP 24.5PP24.5UD25.5
▼ L5 23.0 · L20 27.3
Hit rates at 24.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.91
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
0/1 hit · avg 15 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 7-13 · Dust2 8-13 · L
15
Under 24.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27
11/18 hit at 24.5
Online
30
2/2 hit at 24.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xfl0ud is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 25.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 25+ kills: 0.616 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.3%) or blowout (32.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
26.92
Raw edge
+2.4
Cons. hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.3%
Rating
2.7/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
24.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
54.7%
0 →
Learned
54.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
55.7%174 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.3% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 26% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 39.8 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 33% (under 40%) · team 26% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.7 kills vs line 24.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 56%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.7 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.92 vs line 24.5 → +2.42 (9.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.65
HS/Map
7.6
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.66
ADR
75.3
KAST
77.6%
HS%
55.7%
Multi-kill
14.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)11.8 · KPR 0.592 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Ancient)13.1 · KPR 0.669 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.616
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.09
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.00%
Final projected kills24.84
Vitality gives up (100 series)-10.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 24.5. Model: 59.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.7%
~23 kills · 33r36.2%
Normal40.6%
~28 kills · 41r66.3%
Close maps14.5%
~29 kills · 43r70.6%
Overtime12.2%
~33 kills · 49r85.8%
Match context
Oct 26, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 25.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 26% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Dust2
20.1r
-5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.7r
+7% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Over) · avg 28.7 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Over | 62.3% | |
| 23.5 Over | 58.8% | |
| 24.5 Over | 54.7% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Over | 50.2% | below BE |
| 26.5 Over | 45.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 24.5→24.5no change
- First seen24.5Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
60.7%
K/D
0.92
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.73
HS%
59.7%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
56%
K/D
0.97
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.56
HS%
43.9%
K/D
0.72
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.5
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.68
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
46.8%
K/D
0.78
Cache
2 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.95
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.56
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.84
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Liquid | 14 Cache 13-5 | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Nuke 13-6 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 16 Dust2 10-13 | 14 Anubis 13-3 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 13 Ancient 10-13 | 18 Dust2 11-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 25 Cache 13-10 | 13 Anubis 13-16 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 22 Ancient 13-11 | 17 Nuke 6-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 24 Dust2 16-13 | 15 Ancient 13-5 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 11 Anubis 13-7 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 27 Nuke 12-16 | 42 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Ancient 9-13 | 27 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 15 Dust2 6-13 | 18 Ancient 13-3 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-04 | Liquid | 11 Nuke 5-13 | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-03 | Gaimin Gladiators | 7 Dust2 13-5 | 10 Inferno 13-6 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-28 | HEROIC | 26 Inferno 14-16 | 16 Overpass 16-12 | 42 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-27 | HEROIC | 11 Nuke 7-13 | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 28 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | HEROIC | 14 Mirage 8-13 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-11 | HEROIC | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-10 | FURIA | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 6 Inferno 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
