KillsNeutral
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.33
Hit
57.4%
EV+
-0.5%
Edge
-3.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
18.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.88
Hit
63.4%
EV+
+9.7%
Edge
-2.6
L10
80%
Rifler
YEKINDAR
FURIA vs TYLOO
TAKE · UNDER 18.5
BEST UNDER · PP 18.5PP18.5UD17.5
≈ L5 17.8 · L20 17.8LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 18.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.51
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
No meeting with TYLOO in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.8
14/20 hit at 18.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm YEKINDAR is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 90.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Stays under with 18 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 60.3% HS): below 0.777 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.88
Raw edge
-2.6
Cons. hit
63.4%
EV+
+9.7%
Rating
8.4/10
Exp. rounds
39.5
Line
18.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
63.4%
0 →
Learned
63.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 16.5-20.5
All players · Headshots
46.8%250 picks
This player
50%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 85.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Under risk — team 91% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 39.5 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 91% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 1.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.1 headshots vs line 18.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 60%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.1 against a 18.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
THIN
- • Model 15.88 vs line 18.5 → -2.62 (-14.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 39.5 rounds · 2-0 67.9% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.75
HS/Map
8.9
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.65
ADR
76.2
KAST
72.5%
HS%
60.3%
Multi-kill
15.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.7 · KPR 0.676 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)8.2 · KPR 0.677 · 20.3r
Required KPR to clear0.777
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.71
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.43%
Final projected kills26.33
× realistic HS% (60.3%)15.88
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 18.5. Model: 85.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.2%
~13 HS · 33r90.8%
Normal33.1%
~17 HS · 43r63.3%
Close maps16.7%
~17 HS · 42r64.8%
Overtime10%
~20 HS · 49r43%
Match context
Oct 27, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 90.5% · live
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 91% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
19.2r
+1% KPR here
M2 Ancient
20.3r
+1% KPR here
Total
39.5r
2-0 sweep67.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.2%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18.5 (Under) · avg 17.1 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
18.5
Nearby lines
| 16.5 Under | 41.9% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 54.4% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 63.4% | OFFERED |
| 19.5 Under | 65% | |
| 20.5 Under | 66.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 18.5→18.5no change
- First seen18.5Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.66
HS%
64.6%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
62.8%
K/D
0.9
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.69
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
48.3%
K/D
1.12
Cache
5 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.72
HS%
59%
K/D
0.97
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
62.8%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.48
HS%
60%
K/D
0.56
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Spirit | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 11 Ancient 13-8 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-25 | Natus Vincere | 11 Ancient 10-13 | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | DENDELE | 11 Ancient 13-8 | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Ancient 16-19 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 9 Cache 10-13 | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 15 Nuke 11-13 | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 6 Inferno 13-3 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 14 Ancient 7-13 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 1 Cache 4-13 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 22 Cache 16-14 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 7 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Nuke 13-11 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 13-8 | 15 Mirage 16-19 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Nuke 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 8 Ancient 14-16 | 6 Dust2 3-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 11 Mirage 7-13 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ |
