KillsPlayable
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.53
Hit
59.3%
EV+
+2.7%
Edge
-4.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.78
Hit
63.1%
EV+
+9.2%
Edge
-2.7
L10
70%
Rifler · IGL
X5G7V
K27 vs B8
TAKE · UNDER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5SL14.5
≈ L5 13.2 · L20 13.4LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
58%
11/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.32
Previous meeting · vs B8
No meeting with B8 in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13
2/4 hit at 14.5
Online
13.5
9/15 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm X5G7V is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 52.3% HS): below 0.683 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (3.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
11.78
Raw edge
-2.7
Cons. hit
63.1%
EV+
+9.2%
Rating
9.1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
14.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
63.1%
0 →
Learned
63.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
40.8%414 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 79.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 57.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT 4% (under 22%) · 40.6 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 36% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 1.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.0 headshots vs line 14.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 52%. Next: vs B8, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.0 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
THIN
- • Model 11.78 vs line 14.5 → -2.72 (-18.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 58.4% · OT 3.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
12.79
HS/Map
6.68
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.6
ADR
71.4
KAST
66.3%
HS%
52.3%
Multi-kill
12.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)6 · KPR 0.551 · 21r
Map 2 (Nuke)5.8 · KPR 0.572 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.683
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.79
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.14%
Final projected kills22.53
× realistic HS% (52.3%)11.78
B8 gives up (46 series)+2.9% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 79.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.7%
~10 HS · 34r91.7%
Normal60.5%
~12 HS · 42r74.5%
Close maps11.3%
~13 HS · 43r71.1%
Overtime3.5%
~14 HS · 49r53.4%
Match context
Oct 27, 3:00 AM CTLANTesla Cup 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 35.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 36% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Cache
21r
-5% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.6r
-2% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep58.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.8%
Overtime3.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 20 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 13.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 52.2% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 58.2% | |
| 14.5 Under | 63.1% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 65.4% | |
| 16.5 Under | 66.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 09:40 PM
Map stats
Cache
11 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.56
HS%
50.7%
K/D
0.77
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.59
HS%
55.2%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
50%
K/D
0.98
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
54.9%
K/D
1.02
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.6
HS%
55.3%
K/D
0.9
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.58
HS%
47.4%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | fnatic | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Metizport | 6 Nuke 11-13 | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Eternal Fire | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Mirage 8-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | SINNERS | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 6 Ancient 10-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | ex-RUBY | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 10 Cache 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | EYEBALLERS | 1 Nuke 13-7 | 11 Anubis 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | GamerLegion | 6 Cache 10-13 | 9 Nuke 10-13 | 15 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 6 Ancient 13-6 | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | Virtus.pro | 4 Cache 10-13 | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Nemiga | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 5 Mirage 9-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | HEROIC | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 7 Cache 9-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | WW | 8 Dust2 10-13 | 10 Cache 13-6 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Virtus.pro | 5 Anubis 13-5 | 7 Cache 14-16 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-08 | LP | 11 Ancient 13-5 | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Eternal Fire | 6 Ancient 10-13 | 1 Cache 7-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | MIBR | 13 Cache 13-6 | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | GamerLegion | 0 Cache 4-13 | 9 Nuke 13-5 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | magic | 4 Cache 9-13 | 2 Ancient 1-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | MIBR | 7 Cache 10-13 | 9 Nuke 5-13 | 16 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
