KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.38
Hit
37.9%
EV+
-34.3%
Edge
-0.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.5
Hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.7%
Edge
-1.0
L10
50%
Rifler · IGL
MisteM
Eternal Fire vs JiJieHao
RISK · UNDER 25.5
≈ L5 24.8 · L20 25.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 43% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
47%
8/17
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±8.16
Previous meeting · vs JiJieHao
1/2 hit · avg 29.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · Journey Autumn 2026
Dust2 19-15 · Mirage 11-13 · Split
46
Over 25.5 ✗
2026-09-24 · Stake Pulse Beat II
Anubis 10-13 · Mirage 2-13 · L
13
Under 25.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
25.8
7/14 hit at 25.5
Online
25.7
1/3 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MisteM is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 55.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.553 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (21.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.38
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
37.9%
EV+
-34.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
46.1
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
37.9%
0 →
Learned
37.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
43.3%323 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: OT 22% (under 22%) · team 56% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 4/10 at this line · projection 2.1 from his L10 avg · blocked
- Under risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 3/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 47.1% at this line
Game script fits · OT 22% (under 22%) · team 56% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 2.1 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.5 kills vs line 25.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.59, HS 53%. Next: vs JiJieHao, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.5 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.38 vs line 25.5 → -0.12 (-0.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 46.1 rounds · 2-0 52.1% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
12.88
HS/Map
6.85
K/D
0.84
KPR
0.59
ADR
69.2
KAST
72.4%
HS%
53.2%
Multi-kill
13.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)12.9 · KPR 0.548 · 23.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)12.5 · KPR 0.541 · 22.8r
Required KPR to clear0.553
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.09
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.14%
Final projected kills25.38
JiJieHao gives up (55 series)+5.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 50.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps19.6%
~21 kills · 39r74.9%
Normal30.9%
~23 kills · 42r67.3%
Close maps27.7%
~27 kills · 49r44.3%
Overtime21.8%
~30 kills · 55r28.6%
Match context
Oct 23, 8:00 AM CTLANDraculaN Season 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 55.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Cache
23.3r
-5% KPR here
M2 Mirage
22.8r
-6% KPR here
Total
46.1r
2-0 sweep52.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)49.5%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)19.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 27.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 30.3% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 35.1% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 37.9% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 40.8% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 43.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→offno change
- Pulled25.5Oct 23, 08:42 AM
- Back on board25.5 → 25.5Oct 23, 08:14 AM
- Pulled25.5Oct 23, 08:02 AM
- First seen25.5Oct 22, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.56
HS%
49.6%
K/D
0.86
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.54
HS%
57.9%
K/D
0.75
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
52%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.44
HS%
55.2%
K/D
0.67
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
9.5
KPR
0.44
HS%
57.9%
K/D
0.66
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.73
HS%
50%
K/D
1.14
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 17 Cache 14-16 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 16 Ancient 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 14 Cache 13-7 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 9 Cache 13-1 | 23 Dust2 22-20 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 4 Dust2 4-13 | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 27 Dust2 19-15 | 19 Mirage 11-13 | 46 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 14 Mirage 12-16 | 14 Cache 13-7 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 8 Cache 13-6 | 20 Anubis 19-17 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 6 Cache 4-13 | 14 Anubis 16-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 9 Inferno 13-6 | 18 Dust2 13-10 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 5 Mirage 2-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | WBT | 7 Anubis 13-11 | 11 Cache 16-14 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | GenOne | 12 Cache 13-9 | 13 Dust2 13-2 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | NT | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 21 Cache 16-13 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
