KillsPlayable
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.58
Hit
64.9%
EV+
+21.5%
Edge
+3.1
L10
80%
HeadshotsPlayable
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.53
Hit
64.6%
EV+
+20.8%
Edge
+2.0
L10
70%
Rifler · IGL
VINI
Imperial Esports vs paiN Gaming
PLAYABLE · OVER 27.5
▲ L5 31.6 · L20 29.8
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
71%
10/14
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.95
Previous meeting · vs paiN Gaming
1/1 hit · avg 29 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-27 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Anubis 13-4 · Cache 13-11 · W
29
Over 27.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.2
8/12 hit at 27.5
Online
33.5
2/2 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm VINI is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 69.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.638 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.5%) or blowout (27.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.58
Raw edge
+3.1
Cons. hit
64.9%
EV+
+21.5%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.1
Line
27.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
64.9%
0 →
Learned
64.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
57.2%477 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 78.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 71.4% at this line
Game script fits · 43.1 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 27% (under 40%) · team 70% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 0.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.0 kills vs line 27.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 51%. Next: vs paiN, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.0 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 30.58 vs line 27.5 → +3.08 (11.2%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
- • Expected 43.1 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 13.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
14.89
HS/Map
7.57
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.7
ADR
76.8
KAST
73.3%
HS%
50.8%
Multi-kill
17.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14 · KPR 0.631 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)16.6 · KPR 0.797 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.638
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.66
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.27%
Final projected kills30.58
paiN Gaming gives up (81 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 78.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.1%
~26 kills · 36r35.2%
Normal37.3%
~31 kills · 43r69.6%
Close maps22%
~33 kills · 46r81.2%
Overtime13.6%
~37 kills · 52r94.1%
Match context
Oct 23, 4:00 PM CTLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Imperial Esports 70%30% paiN Gaming
Win chance source: Polymarket 69.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 70% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.2r
-9% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.9r
+15% KPR here
Total
43.1r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35.6%
Overtime13.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 30.0 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 66.5% | |
| 26.5 Over | 65.9% | |
| 27.5 Over | 64.9% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 63.2% | |
| 29.5 Over | 57.2% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 28
Line movement
first 27.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 23, 04:02 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 29.5Oct 23, 03:10 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 23, 03:09 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 23, 03:09 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 23, 03:08 PM
- Moved up27.5 → 28.5Oct 23, 12:42 PM
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 22, 07:59 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 22, 07:58 PM
- First seen27.5Oct 22, 07:58 PM
Map stats
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.61
HS%
51.5%
K/D
0.91
Cache
5 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
48.3%
K/D
1.04
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.87
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.34
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.62
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.75
HS%
55.6%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.97
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 19 Dust2 13-4 | 14 Mirage 16-14 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | BESTIA | 12 Dust2 7-13 | 18 Mirage 7-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Turma do Pagode | 16 Anubis 13-10 | 18 Cache 16-14 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | DENDELE | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 22 Inferno 11-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | NRG | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 20 Dust2 13-7 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Without a Roof | 22 Dust2 13-4 | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | paiN | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 21 Cache 13-11 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Galorys | 19 Cache 16-12 | 14 Inferno 13-6 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Juventus | 14 Anubis 13-6 | 10 Nuke 13-3 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | BESTIA | 13 Mirage 10-13 | 14 Nuke 13-2 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Mirage 13-6 | 12 Cache 8-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Bounty Hunters | 20 Mirage 13-10 | 13 Nuke 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Peladona | 17 Dust2 13-16 | 17 Cache 13-8 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
