KillsLean
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.04
Hit
53.5%
EV+
-7.3%
Edge
-2.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
7.94
Hit
61.2%
EV+
+6.0%
Edge
-1.6
L10
70%
AWPer
b1sT
Virtus.Pro vs K27
LEAN · UNDER 30.5
▼ L5 25.6 · L20 30.4
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Medium
±7.58
Previous meeting · vs K27
0/2 hit · avg 32 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-11 · Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier
Cache 13-10 · Dust2 13-8 · W
31
Over 30.5 ✗
2026-09-09 · Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier
Anubis 5-13 · Cache 16-14 · Split
33
Over 30.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
28.4
2/5 hit at 30.5
Online · this match
31
6/15 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm b1st is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.73 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.04
Raw edge
-2.5
Cons. hit
53.5%
EV+
-7.3%
Rating
4.1/10
Exp. rounds
41.8
Line
30.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
53.5%
0 →
Learned
53.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
46.2%405 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 12% (under 22%) · 41.8 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 44% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 1.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.0 kills vs line 30.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 28%. Next: vs K27, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 27.0 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.04 vs line 30.5 → -2.46 (-8.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 7 real matches) · kill rate +1% KPR
- • Expected 41.8 rounds · 2-0 52.2% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.18
HS/Map
4.3
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.64
ADR
68.2
KAST
69.9%
HS%
28.3%
Multi-kill
13.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)14.3 · KPR 0.669 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)13.7 · KPR 0.675 · 20.4r
Required KPR to clear0.73
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.09
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills28.04
K27 gives up (47 series)-3.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 64.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24%
~24 kills · 35r86.3%
Normal49.3%
~28 kills · 42r65.1%
Close maps14.5%
~30 kills · 45r55%
Overtime12.2%
~34 kills · 51r33.6%
Match context
Oct 23, 8:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 44.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 7 real matches) · kill rate +1% KPR
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 44% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Dust2
21.4r
+4% KPR here
M2 Mirage
20.4r
+5% KPR here
Total
41.8r
2-0 sweep52.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 27.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 47.6% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 50.7% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 53.5% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 59.3% | |
| 32.5 Under | 61% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→offno change
- Pulled31Oct 23, 08:25 AM
- Moved up30.5 → 31Oct 23, 12:52 AM
- First seen30.5Oct 22, 09:20 PM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
28.5%
K/D
1.1
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.68
HS%
29.4%
K/D
1.01
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
27.4%
K/D
1.04
Cache
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.75
HS%
26.1%
K/D
1.21
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.71
HS%
35%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.75
HS%
23.5%
K/D
1.06
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Johnny Speeds | 15 Cache 11-13 | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | BBL | 5 Nuke 0-13 | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | HOTU | 23 Dust2 16-14 | 16 Anubis 13-6 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | HEROIC | 16 Ancient 13-6 | 7 Dust2 2-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-12 | FOKUS | 16 Cache 11-13 | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | K27 | 12 Cache 13-10 | 19 Dust2 13-8 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | BESTIA | 11 Mirage 13-4 | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | K27 | 8 Anubis 5-13 | 25 Cache 16-14 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-03 | fnatic | 15 Anubis 13-16 | 21 Dust2 13-11 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-01 | Entropy | 11 Mirage 8-13 | 10 Nuke 8-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | WBT | 22 Anubis 13-16 | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-31 | Atreides | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Dust2 13-4 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle Academy | 18 Anubis 13-7 | 22 Dust2 13-10 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Fire Flux | 11 Anubis 6-13 | 23 Mirage 13-9 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Sashi | 20 Cache 13-4 | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | JiJieHao | 16 Ancient 13-11 | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Sangal | 23 Anubis 13-11 | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Inner Circle | 16 Mirage 9-13 | 13 Dust2 9-13 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-10 | B8 | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Ancient 7-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-09 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 4 Mirage 3-13 | 36 Nuke 19-15 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
