KillsPlayable
Line
29
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.01
Hit
60.9%
EV+
+5.5%
Edge
+3.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
19.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
22.41
Hit
62.5%
EV+
+8.3%
Edge
+2.9
L10
60%
Rifler
jcobbb
Faze Clan vs Alliance
TAKE · OVER 19.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP19.5UD19.5SL19.5
▼ L5 19.6 · L20 21.9
Hit rates at 19.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±5
Previous meeting · vs Alliance
0/1 hit · avg 11 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-08 · FISSURE Playground 3
Ancient 9-13 · Nuke 11-13 · L
11
Under 19.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
21.2
10/18 hit at 19.5
Online
28
2/2 hit at 19.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jcobbb is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 20.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 68.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 20+ HS (~29 kills at 70% HS): 0.625 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (22%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
22.41
Raw edge
+2.9
Cons. hit
62.5%
EV+
+8.3%
Rating
9/10
Exp. rounds
44.6
Line
19.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
62.5%
0 →
Learned
62.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 17.5-21.5
All players · Headshots
49%145 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 72% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 44.6 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 22% (under 40%) · team 69% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.6 headshots vs line 19.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 70%. Next: vs Alliance, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 21.6 against a 19.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 22.41 vs line 19.5 → +2.91 (14.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
- • Expected 44.6 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.65
HS/Map
10.95
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.69
ADR
76.8
KAST
73.4%
HS%
70%
Multi-kill
17.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)9.7 · KPR 0.638 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Mirage)12.7 · KPR 0.785 · 23r
Required KPR to clear0.625
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.83
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.57%
Final projected kills32.01
× realistic HS% (70%)22.41
Alliance gives up (61 series)+7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 19.5. Model: 72% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22%
~19 HS · 38r42.4%
Normal47.2%
~22 HS · 44r67.8%
Close maps11.9%
~24 HS · 48r81.2%
Overtime18.9%
~27 HS · 54r92.6%
Match context
Oct 27, 6:00 AM CTLANTesla Cup 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 68.5% · live
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 69% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
21.6r
-6% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23r
+15% KPR here
Total
44.6r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 19.5 (Over) · avg 21.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
19.5
Nearby lines
| 17.5 Over | 66.5% | |
| 18.5 Over | 64.9% | |
| 19.5 Over | 62.5% | OFFERED |
| 20.5 Over | 56.9% | below BE |
| 21.5 Over | 50.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 20.5
Line movement
first 19.5→19.5no change
- First seen19.5Oct 25, 09:40 PM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.63
HS%
63.8%
K/D
0.95
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
19.4
KPR
0.83
HS%
74.9%
K/D
1.27
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
68.9%
K/D
1.13
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.48
HS%
73.3%
K/D
0.61
Cache
4 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
64.4%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.97
HS%
75%
K/D
1.89
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | BC.Game | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 16 Nuke 16-19 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | HEROIC | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Envy | 6 Ancient 13-5 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | JiJieHao | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 6 Dust2 9-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | ASTRAL | 8 Ancient 4-13 | 16 Mirage 13-7 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | NAVI Junior | 17 Anubis 13-2 | 12 Nuke 13-2 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | NAVI Junior | 10 Anubis 9-13 | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PURE | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 23 Mirage 16-14 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Sangal | 12 Dust2 13-16 | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Astralis | 9 Ancient 11-13 | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | Nemiga | 19 Mirage 12-16 | 5 Ancient 11-13 | 24 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | magic | 14 Ancient 14-16 | 7 Dust2 13-10 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | Alliance | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 6 Nuke 11-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Vitality | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Cache 6-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Legacy | 12 Cache 13-6 | 7 Mirage 13-8 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-01 | Spirit | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 8 Cache 13-9 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-31 | The MongolZ | 19 Nuke 16-12 | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-25 | DENDELE | 12 Nuke 13-2 | 15 Mirage 10-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-22 | EYEBALLERS | 19 Mirage 16-12 | 10 Dust2 13-8 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-11 | PARIVISION | 10 Cache 13-9 | 16 Dust2 17-19 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
