KillsBetter playTake
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.89
Hit
58.3%
EV+
+1.1%
Edge
-4.6
L10
67%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.45
Hit
54.5%
EV+
-5.7%
Edge
-2.0
L10
44%
Rifler
lipshawty
QUINTESSÊNCIA vs borracheiros
RISK · UNDER 19.5
▼ L5 19.0 · L20 20.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 19.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
44%
4/9
L20
44%
4/9
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.59
Previous meeting · vs borracheiros
No meeting with borracheiros in his last 9 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
20.2
4/9 hit at 19.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm lipshawty is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 19.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 31.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 19 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 66.7% HS): below 0.74 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (6.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
17.45
Raw edge
-2.0
Cons. hit
54.5%
EV+
-5.7%
Rating
2.6/10
Exp. rounds
39.5
Line
19.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.5%
+2 →
Learned
56.5%
what past results change
learning 0.5x
learning 0.5x
Same-line track record · Under 17.5-21.5
All players · Headshots
49.3%75 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 44.4% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 44.4% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 9 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 44.4% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 44.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.78) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 9 series Maps 1-2: avg 20.2 headshots vs line 19.5 (5/9 over). KPR 0.69, HS 67%. Next: vs borracheiros, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 20.2 against a 19.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.45 vs line 19.5 → -2.05 (-10.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 44.4% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 39.5 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 6.5%
Performance (last 18 maps)
Kills/Map
15.17
HS/Map
10.11
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.69
ADR
74
KAST
73.6%
HS%
66.7%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.1 · KPR 0.621 · 19.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.6 · KPR 0.655 · 19.8r
Required KPR to clear0.74
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.21
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.22%
Final projected kills25.16
× realistic HS% (66.7%)17.45
borracheiros gives up (30 series)+4.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 19.5. Model: 64.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps14.2%
~15 HS · 33r83.9%
Normal67.3%
~17 HS · 40r67.1%
Close maps12%
~19 HS · 42r58.6%
Overtime6.5%
~21 HS · 48r40.3%
Match context
Oct 23, 04:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 31.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 32% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Ancient
19.7r
-4% KPR here
M2 Mirage
19.8r
+1% KPR here
Total
39.5r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.5%
Overtime6.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)14.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
9 series · line 19.5 (Under) · avg 20.2 · hit 4/9 · tap a bar
19.5
Nearby lines
| 17.5 Under | 45.4% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 51% | below BE |
| 19.5 Under | 54.5% | OFFERED |
| 20.5 Under | 58.9% | |
| 21.5 Under | 63.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 19.5
Line movement
first 19.5→offno change
- Pulled18.5Oct 23, 04:11 PM
- Back on board18.5 → 18.5Oct 23, 04:11 PM
- Pulled18.5Oct 23, 04:10 PM
- Moved down19.5 → 18.5Oct 23, 02:50 PM
- First seen19.5Oct 22, 05:02 PM
Map stats
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.65
HS%
62%
K/D
0.82
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
70.2%
K/D
1
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
20.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
67.7%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
82.9%
K/D
1.11
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.74
HS%
58.8%
K/D
1.21
Cache
1 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.71
HS%
41.2%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Los Niños | 7 Ancient 8-13 | 14 Mirage 13-6 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | RED Canids Academy | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Ancient 6-13 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | DAMAJUANA | 8 Anubis 13-7 | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-13 | Martians | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | MEIA NOITE | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 6 Ancient 10-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | ex-Keyd Stars | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 6 Ancient 5-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Procyon | 10 Anubis 11-13 | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-05 | UNO MILLE | 24 Anubis 20-22 | 7 Cache 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-03 | Isurus | 15 Ancient 13-9 | 12 Dust2 6-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ |
