KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.91
Hit
50.5%
EV+
-12.5%
Edge
-2.6
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
18.62
Hit
47.4%
EV+
-17.8%
Edge
-0.9
L10
50%
Rifler
HeCkBNk
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
RISK · UNDER 19.5
▲ L5 23.6 · L20 21.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 19.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±7.86
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
21.2
8/20 hit at 19.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm HeCkBNk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 19.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 19 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 66.7% HS): below 0.767 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
18.62
Raw edge
-0.9
Cons. hit
47.4%
EV+
-17.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
38.1
Line
19.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.4%
0 →
Learned
47.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 17.5-21.5
All players · Headshots
51%145 picks
This player
50%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 38.1 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 37% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 2.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.2 headshots vs line 19.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 67%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 21.2 against a 19.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.62 vs line 19.5 → -0.88 (-4.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 38.1 rounds · 2-0 60.3% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.9
HS/Map
10.6
K/D
1.33
KPR
0.76
ADR
79.1
KAST
78.9%
HS%
66.7%
Multi-kill
18%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)7.8 · KPR 0.619 · 19r
Map 2 (Cache)10.8 · KPR 0.857 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.767
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.12
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.73%
Final projected kills27.91
× realistic HS% (66.7%)18.62
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 19.5. Model: 54.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~16 HS · 32r74%
Normal57.6%
~19 HS · 39r56.8%
Close maps10.5%
~20 HS · 41r52.3%
Overtime7.8%
~23 HS · 47r37.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 9:00 AM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 37% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Dust2
19r
-15% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.1r
+17% KPR here
Total
38.1r
2-0 sweep60.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 19.5 (Under) · avg 21.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
19.5
Nearby lines
| 17.5 Under | 39.4% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 42.4% | below BE |
| 19.5 Under | 47.4% | OFFERED |
| 20.5 Under | 54.3% | below BE |
| 21.5 Under | 57% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 19.5
Line movement
first 19.5→offno change
- Pulled19.5Oct 24, 09:00 AM
- First seen19.5Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
65.3%
K/D
1.08
Cache
8 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.94
HS%
66%
K/D
1.63
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.77
HS%
65.3%
K/D
1.33
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.72
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.21
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.8
HS%
68.2%
K/D
1.38
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
18.5
KPR
0.79
HS%
75.7%
K/D
1.54
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Acend | 10 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Cache 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Dust2 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 10 Cache 13-5 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 26 Mirage 19-16 | 14 Cache 13-5 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 18 Cache 13-11 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 10 Cache 13-9 | 20 Anubis 16-13 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 12 Cache 13-0 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 9 Anubis 6-13 | 2 Dust2 0-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 11 Ancient 13-6 | 5 Dust2 13-5 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 16 Anubis 13-10 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 7 Mirage 13-8 | 4 Ancient 8-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 14 Nuke 13-10 | 9 Mirage 13-4 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 6 Anubis 6-13 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 14 Cache 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 9 Dust2 13-3 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 15 Dust2 13-7 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Younglings | 18 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-18 | 300FPS | 16 Mirage 16-14 | 13 Cache 13-10 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
