KillsBetter playLean
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.92
Hit
59%
EV+
+2.2%
Edge
-3.1
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.13
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.0%
Edge
-1.4
L10
70%
Rifler
dangeR
Abyssal vs Rooster
RISK · UNDER 15.5
▼ L5 12.4 · L20 14.2LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Rooster
1/2 hit · avg 18.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-10 · DFRAG Open Series 6
Mirage 13-2 · Dust2 13-6 · W
24
Over 15.5 ✗
2026-06-09 · DFRAG Open Series 5
Overpass 13-6 · Nuke 7-13 · Split
13
Under 15.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
12.3
6/9 hit at 15.5
Online
15.8
6/10 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm dangeR is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.0%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer: across ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.13
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.0%
Exp. rounds
40.9
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
47.3%579 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.0 headshots vs line 15.5 (3/10 over). Next: vs Rooster, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.0 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.8 rounds per map for these teams
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.13 vs line 15.5 → -1.37 (-8.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Expected 40.9 rounds · 2-0 58.2% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.03
HS/Map
7.1
K/D
0.94
ADR
68.9
KAST
69.8%
Multi-kill
11.7%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.0%
M1 Inferno
21.3r
M2 Mirage
19.6r
Total
40.9r
2-0 sweep58.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 13.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→offno change
- Pulled15.5Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 26, 10:58 AM
Map stats
Inferno
13 maps
Kills
13.4
K/D
0.91
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14
K/D
1.2
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.6
K/D
1.05
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
11.5
K/D
0.81
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
11.3
K/D
0.79
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
12
K/D
0.89
Cache
1 maps
Kills
10
K/D
0.59
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
K/D
0.83
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 10 Dust2 7-13 | 8 Inferno 3-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 2 Cache 8-13 | 3 Inferno 9-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 4 Inferno 3-13 | 3 Ancient 13-6 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | FlyQuest | 15 Dust2 6-13 | 3 Inferno 8-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Ground Zero | 7 Inferno 13-8 | 7 Nuke 13-7 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | KZG | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Dust2 13-8 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Mindfreak | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | FlyQuest | 5 Dust2 4-13 | 3 Inferno 8-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Ground Zero | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Dust2 16-12 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Arcade | 12 Mirage 13-11 | 10 Inferno 19-15 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-10 | Rooster | 12 Mirage 13-2 | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | Arcade | 8 Mirage 13-6 | 14 Inferno 16-14 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-06 | Ground Zero | 2 Mirage 0-13 | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Arcade | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Mindfreak | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 10 Mirage 13-6 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-12 | MARKandLARRY | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 3 Overpass 6-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Rooster | 9 Overpass 13-6 | 4 Nuke 7-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-08 | MGLBROS | 7 Inferno 13-2 | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-30 | Ding Cuts | 4 Mirage 13-3 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
