KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.39
Hit
41.8%
EV+
-21.7%
Edge
-0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.13
Hit
45%
EV+
-15.8%
Edge
+0.6
L10
70%
Rifler
Tomate
Galorys vs BESTIA
RISK · UNDER 30.5
▼ L5 26.2 · L20 30.9Risk · Edge -0.1 far below ±3.0 +1LAN UNDER · 43% hitSTAND-IN? · DeStiNy
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±9.87
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
1/1 hit · avg 30 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · CCT South America 2026 Series 6
Dust2 13-6 · Ancient 13-7 · W
30
Under 30.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29
3/6 hit at 30.5
Online
31.7
8/14 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tomate is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.672 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
30.39
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
41.8%
EV+
-21.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
41.8%
0 →
Learned
41.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.9%450 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 45.4 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 44% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.5 kills vs line 30.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 50%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.5 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.39 vs line 30.5 → -0.11 (-0.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 52.3% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.45
HS/Map
7.7
K/D
1.13
KPR
0.65
ADR
72.9
KAST
76%
HS%
49.8%
Multi-kill
15%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)15.8 · KPR 0.696 · 22.8r
Map 2 (Inferno)14.6 · KPR 0.647 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.672
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.49
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.34%
Final projected kills30.39
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 50.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps21.9%
~26 kills · 38r74%
Normal51.4%
~31 kills · 46r53.1%
Close maps16.7%
~33 kills · 49r44.9%
Overtime10%
~37 kills · 55r29.5%
Match context
Oct 23, 1:00 PM CTLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 44% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Ancient
22.8r
+10% KPR here
M2 Inferno
22.6r
+3% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep52.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)21.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 29.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 33% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 37.4% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 41.8% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 44.3% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 50.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→offno change
- Pulled31.5Oct 23, 01:11 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 23, 12:20 PM
- Back on board30.5 → 30.5Oct 22, 07:59 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 22, 07:58 PM
- First seen30.5Oct 22, 07:58 PM
Map stats
Ancient
16 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
50.9%
K/D
1.12
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.67
HS%
46%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
56.6%
K/D
1.24
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
49.4%
K/D
1.58
Cache
3 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.57
HS%
42.9%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.6
HS%
46.4%
K/D
0.78
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 18 Anubis 13-9 | 14 Inferno 9-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 9 Inferno 6-13 | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 16 Anubis 8-13 | 18 Inferno 16-14 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | LP | 11 Inferno 5-13 | 8 Ancient 13-3 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | ex-Keyd Stars | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Ancient 16-14 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Bounty Hunters | 17 Cache 13-6 | 13 Ancient 9-13 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Yawara | 15 Anubis 13-4 | 17 Ancient 13-2 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | MEIA NOITE | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Turma do Pagode | 20 Ancient 13-10 | 15 Nuke 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Grêmio | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 35 Ancient 25-28 | 51 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | Turma do Pagode | 12 Anubis 13-4 | 13 Nuke 10-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Procyon | 14 Inferno 13-4 | 16 Ancient 13-6 | 30 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BESTIA Academy | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 30 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Grêmio | 29 Inferno 19-16 | 20 Ancient 13-9 | 49 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | Turma do Pagode | 18 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Ancient 7-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Procyon | 13 Inferno 6-13 | 23 Ancient 13-9 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Bounty Hunters | 5 Cache 7-13 | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | paiN | 13 Cache 9-13 | 11 Dust2 5-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | METANOIA Wolves | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 21 Ancient 13-10 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Keyd Stars | 24 Dust2 13-8 | 21 Ancient 13-11 | 45 | W | Over ✗ |
