KillsNeutral
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.19
Hit
51.7%
EV+
-10.5%
Edge
-3.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
7.7
Hit
60.8%
EV+
+5.4%
Edge
-1.8
L10
70%
AWPer
b1sT
Virtus.Pro vs K27
LEAN · UNDER 9.5
▼ L5 6.4 · L20 8.6
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Low
±3.03
Previous meeting · vs K27
0/2 hit · avg 12.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-11 · Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier
Cache 13-10 · Dust2 13-8 · W
13
Over 9.5 ✗
2026-09-09 · Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier
Anubis 5-13 · Cache 16-14 · Split
12
Over 9.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
7
4/5 hit at 9.5
Online · this match
9.1
7/15 hit at 9.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm b1st is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~35 kills at 28.3% HS): below 0.803 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
7.7
Raw edge
-1.8
Cons. hit
60.8%
EV+
+5.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
41.8
Line
9.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
60.8%
0 →
Learned
60.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
50.7%140 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 72.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.8 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 12% (under 22%) · 41.8 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 44% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.1 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 7.8 headshots vs line 9.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 28%. Next: vs K27, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 7.8 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 7.7 vs line 9.5 → -1.8 (-18.9%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
- • Expected 41.8 rounds · 2-0 52.2% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.18
HS/Map
4.3
K/D
1.09
KPR
0.64
ADR
68.2
KAST
69.9%
HS%
28.3%
Multi-kill
13.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)3.9 · KPR 0.649 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)3.8 · KPR 0.655 · 20.4r
Required KPR to clear0.803
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.25
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.21%
Final projected kills27.19
× realistic HS% (28.3%)7.7
K27 gives up (47 series)-2.9% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 72.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24%
~7 HS · 35r87.1%
Normal49.3%
~8 HS · 42r74.3%
Close maps14.5%
~8 HS · 45r68.3%
Overtime12.2%
~9 HS · 51r54.5%
Match context
Oct 23, 8:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 44.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 44% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Dust2
21.4r
+4% KPR here
M2 Mirage
20.4r
+5% KPR here
Total
41.8r
2-0 sweep52.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 7.8 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 43.5% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 53.3% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 60.8% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 64.6% | |
| 11.5 Under | 65.8% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→offno change
- Pulled9.5Oct 23, 08:25 AM
- First seen9.5Oct 22, 09:20 PM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
28.5%
K/D
1.1
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.68
HS%
29.4%
K/D
1.01
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
27.4%
K/D
1.04
Cache
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.75
HS%
26.1%
K/D
1.21
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.71
HS%
35%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.75
HS%
23.5%
K/D
1.06
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Johnny Speeds | 2 Cache 11-13 | 2 Dust2 2-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | BBL | 1 Nuke 0-13 | 3 Mirage 5-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | HOTU | 8 Dust2 16-14 | 2 Anubis 13-6 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | HEROIC | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 1 Dust2 2-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-12 | FOKUS | 5 Cache 11-13 | 3 Mirage 13-10 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | K27 | 5 Cache 13-10 | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | BESTIA | 2 Mirage 13-4 | 3 Dust2 13-7 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | K27 | 4 Anubis 5-13 | 8 Cache 16-14 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-03 | fnatic | 1 Anubis 13-16 | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-01 | Entropy | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 3 Nuke 8-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | WBT | 4 Anubis 13-16 | 3 Dust2 13-6 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-31 | Atreides | 4 Ancient 13-8 | 4 Dust2 13-4 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle Academy | 7 Anubis 13-7 | 3 Dust2 13-10 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Fire Flux | 4 Anubis 6-13 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Sashi | 3 Cache 13-4 | 3 Dust2 11-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | JiJieHao | 7 Ancient 13-11 | 1 Dust2 13-11 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Sangal | 9 Anubis 13-11 | 4 Mirage 13-8 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Inner Circle | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 4 Dust2 9-13 | 11 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-10 | B8 | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 5 Ancient 7-13 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-09 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 3 Mirage 3-13 | 8 Nuke 19-15 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
