KillsLean
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.02
Hit
60%
EV+
+4.0%
Edge
+2.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.51
Hit
59.6%
EV+
+3.2%
Edge
+2.5
L10
50%
Rifler
Rkzinho
paiN vs Galorys
LEAN · OVER 17
≈ L5 17.8 · L20 18.4
Hit rates at 17 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
9/18
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±5.78
Previous meeting · vs Galorys
1/1 hit · avg 25 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 13-9 · Dust2 13-5 · W
25
Over 17 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.3
4/9 hit at 17
Online
18.4
5/9 hit at 17
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Rkzinho is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~29 kills at 62.9% HS): 0.589 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.6%) or blowout (29.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
19.51
Raw edge
+2.5
Cons. hit
59.6%
EV+
+3.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.9
Line
17
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
59.6%
0 →
Learned
59.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 15-19
All players · Headshots
56.9%334 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 45.9 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 30% (under 40%) · team 59% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.2 headshots vs line 17.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 63%. Next: vs Galorys, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 19.2 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 19.51 vs line 17 → +2.51 (14.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 45.9 rounds · 2-0 52.6% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14.61
HS/Map
9.19
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.7
ADR
73.3
KAST
74.8%
HS%
62.9%
Multi-kill
16.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)10 · KPR 0.727 · 22r
Map 2 (Anubis)9.5 · KPR 0.638 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.589
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.23
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.67%
Final projected kills31.02
× realistic HS% (62.9%)19.51
Galorys gives up (77 series)-7.9% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17. Model: 66.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.5%
~16 HS · 39r38.6%
Normal36.9%
~20 HS · 47r66.2%
Close maps22.6%
~21 HS · 49r71.8%
Overtime11%
~23 HS · 55r84.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 1:00 PM CTLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
22r
+7% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.9r
-6% KPR here
Total
45.9r
2-0 sweep52.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)33.6%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17 (Over) · avg 19.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17
Nearby lines
| 15 Over | 64.9% | |
| 16 Over | 63.8% | |
| 17 Over | 59.6% | OFFERED |
| 18 Over | 56.5% | below BE |
| 19 Over | 52.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 17→offno change
- Pulled17Oct 24, 01:00 PM
- Back on board17 → 17Oct 24, 12:12 AM
- Pulled17Oct 24, 12:11 AM
- First seen17Oct 24, 12:11 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.77
HS%
68.8%
K/D
1.28
Cache
7 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.75
HS%
56.5%
K/D
1.1
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
63.6%
K/D
1.1
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
9.8
KPR
0.5
HS%
69.2%
K/D
0.78
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
9.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
73.7%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 1 Inferno 3-13 | 8 Anubis 16-14 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 6 Cache 7-13 | 11 Dust2 13-9 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 5 Inferno 2-13 | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 3 Anubis 4-13 | 14 Cache 11-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 13 Cache 13-9 | 12 Dust2 13-5 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 7 Cache 13-7 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 16 Anubis 13-10 | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 5 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Yawara | 17 Dust2 16-13 | 10 Anubis 16-19 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-01 | Grêmio | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | DAMAJUANA | 10 Mirage 13-4 | 8 Nuke 13-4 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Isurus | 8 Mirage 13-6 | 5 Inferno 10-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Imperial | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | Peladona | 5 Dust2 3-13 | 14 Mirage 14-16 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-16 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 8 Cache 10-13 | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | ALKA | 7 Cache 7-13 | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | METANOIA Wolves | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Cache 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✓ |
