KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.03
Hit
48.4%
EV+
-9.5%
Edge
-0.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.96
Hit
40.9%
EV+
-23.4%
Edge
+0.5
L10
50%
Rifler
Kind0
ex-Zero Tenacity vs ex-RUSTEC
RISK · UNDER 26.5
≈ L5 24.0 · L20 24.7Risk · Edge -0.5 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 26.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
68%
13/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.92
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
24.7
13/19 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Kind0 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.606 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.03
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
48.4%
EV+
-9.5%
Rating
2/10
Exp. rounds
43.7
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.4%
0 →
Learned
48.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
41.7%415 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 68.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 43.7 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.2 kills vs line 26.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 50%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 25.2 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.03 vs line 26.5 → -0.47 (-1.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.7 rounds · 2-0 50.9% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.05
HS/Map
6
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.6
ADR
71.6
KAST
71.5%
HS%
49.8%
Multi-kill
12.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)12.9 · KPR 0.604 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)13.1 · KPR 0.598 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.606
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.26
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.88%
Final projected kills26.03
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+2.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 26.5. Model: 54.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~22 kills · 37r83.4%
Normal41.3%
~26 kills · 44r53.9%
Close maps30.9%
~28 kills · 47r41.4%
Overtime5.6%
~31 kills · 53r19.8%
Match context
Oct 23, 3:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
21.6r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.1r
Total
43.7r
2-0 sweep50.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)36.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Under) · avg 25.2 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Under | 30.5% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 40.4% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 48.4% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Under | 54.2% | |
| 28.5 Under | 58.8% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→offno change
- Pulled26.5Oct 23, 03:17 AM
- First seen26.5Oct 22, 12:02 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.61
HS%
50.8%
K/D
1
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
52.5%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
51.2%
K/D
1
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.73
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
43.8%
K/D
0.76
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | FOKUS | 15 Cache 13-16 | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | FORZE Reload | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 12 Cache 11-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Bushido Wildcats | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 12 Inferno 13-1 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | UNiTY | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 13 Cache 11-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Just Players | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 14 Cache 13-4 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Acend | 10 Cache 13-10 | 15 Inferno 11-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | MASONIC | 14 Nuke 9-13 | 15 Dust2 13-2 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Leo | 14 Nuke 10-13 | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Butterfly | 19 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Mirage 13-2 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | EAC | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 11 Mirage 7-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | Black Phoenix | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Illyrians | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 15 Cache 13-2 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Nuclear TigeRES | 14 Inferno 13-7 | 17 Dust2 14-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | BIG Academy | 10 Cache 13-5 | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | STATE | 11 Inferno 13-9 | 12 Nuke 10-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | INOX Division | 16 Cache 13-8 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 4 Inferno 5-13 | 11 Dust2 13-7 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-16 | Teletubisie | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
