KillsLean
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.08
Hit
50.1%
EV+
-6.4%
Edge
-2.4
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
18.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.14
Hit
59.3%
EV+
+10.9%
Edge
-2.4
L10
60%
Rifler
Cjoffo
ex-Zero Tenacity vs ex-RUSTEC
PLAYABLE · UNDER 18.5
▲ L5 18.4 · L20 17.6
Hit rates at 18.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.03
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
17.6
12/19 hit at 18.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Cjoffo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Stays under with 18 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 59.6% HS): below 0.757 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
16.14
Raw edge
-2.4
Cons. hit
59.3%
EV+
+10.9%
Rating
7.4/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
18.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
59.3%
0 →
Learned
59.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 16.5-20.5
All players · Headshots
46.8%250 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 72.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 63.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 41.0 exp. rounds (under 47)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.0 headshots vs line 18.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 60%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 17.0 against a 18.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 16.14 vs line 18.5 → -2.36 (-12.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 50.9% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.35
HS/Map
8.55
K/D
1.22
KPR
0.71
ADR
75.7
KAST
79.4%
HS%
59.6%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)8.4 · KPR 0.668 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.7 · KPR 0.66 · 19.8r
Required KPR to clear0.757
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.23
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.54%
Final projected kills27.08
× realistic HS% (59.6%)16.14
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+3.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 18.5. Model: 72.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~14 HS · 34r90%
Normal45.6%
~16 HS · 41r72.2%
Close maps24.4%
~17 HS · 44r62.9%
Overtime7.8%
~20 HS · 50r41.6%
Match context
Oct 23, 3:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
21.2r
-7% KPR here
M2 Mirage
19.8r
-8% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep50.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)32.2%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18.5 (Under) · avg 17.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
18.5
Nearby lines
| 16.5 Under | 43.2% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 54.8% | |
| 18.5 Under | 59.3% | OFFERED |
| 19.5 Under | 63.2% | |
| 20.5 Under | 65.3% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 17.5→offno change
- Pulled17.5Oct 23, 03:17 AM
- Moved down18.5 → 17.5Oct 23, 12:17 AM
- Moved up17.5 → 18.5Oct 22, 06:04 PM
- First seen17.5Oct 22, 12:02 PM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
55.1%
K/D
1.14
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.64
HS%
63.1%
K/D
1.13
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.75
HS%
70.1%
K/D
1.27
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.79
HS%
58.7%
K/D
1.46
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.66
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.9
HS%
47.4%
K/D
2.38
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | FOKUS | 14 Cache 13-16 | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-19 | Bushido Wildcats | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 7 Inferno 13-1 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | UNiTY | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 12 Cache 11-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Just Players | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Cache 13-4 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Acend | 7 Cache 13-10 | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | MASONIC | 3 Nuke 9-13 | 9 Dust2 13-2 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | Butterfly | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Mirage 13-2 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | EAC | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | Black Phoenix | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Cache 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Illyrians | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 5 Cache 13-2 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Nuclear TigeRES | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 16 Dust2 14-16 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | BIG Academy | 4 Cache 13-5 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | STATE | 15 Inferno 13-9 | 12 Nuke 10-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 9 Anubis 13-8 | 7 Dust2 13-10 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | INOX Division | 6 Cache 13-8 | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 5 Inferno 5-13 | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-16 | Teletubisie | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | UNiTY | 8 Cache 8-13 | 11 Mirage 13-6 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-13 | Metizport | 4 Cache 6-13 | 8 Nuke 16-14 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
