KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
38.46
Hit
67%
EV+
+16.1%
Edge
+6.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsTake
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.37
Hit
65.5%
EV+
+13.4%
Edge
+2.9
L10
60%
Rifler
soulfly
Eternal Fire vs JiJieHao
TAKE · OVER 16.5
▼ L5 17.0 · L20 18.4
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
59%
10/17
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±4.79
Previous meeting · vs JiJieHao
1/2 hit · avg 16 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · Journey Autumn 2026
Dust2 19-15 · Mirage 11-13 · Split
17
Over 16.5 ✓
2026-09-24 · Stake Pulse Beat II
Anubis 10-13 · Mirage 2-13 · L
15
Under 16.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.5
9/14 hit at 16.5
Online
18
1/3 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm soulfly is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 55.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~32 kills at 52.8% HS): 0.678 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.1%) or blowout (19.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
19.37
Raw edge
+2.9
Cons. hit
65.5%
EV+
+13.4%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
46.1
Line
16.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
65.5%
-5.3 →
Learned
60.2%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
57.8%329 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 58.8% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 46.1 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 20% (under 40%) · team 56% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.2 headshots vs line 16.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 53%. Next: vs JiJieHao, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.2 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 19.37 vs line 16.5 → +2.87 (17.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
- • Expected 46.1 rounds · 2-0 52.1% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
17.44
HS/Map
9.21
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.73
ADR
79.5
KAST
77%
HS%
52.8%
Multi-kill
18.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)10.4 · KPR 0.84 · 23.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)8.3 · KPR 0.682 · 22.8r
Required KPR to clear0.678
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.12
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.01%
Final projected kills35.48
× realistic HS% (52.8%)19.37
JiJieHao gives up (55 series)+3.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 68% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps19.6%
~16 HS · 39r45.9%
Normal30.9%
~17 HS · 42r56.9%
Close maps27.7%
~21 HS · 49r81.5%
Overtime21.8%
~23 HS · 55r91.9%
Match context
Oct 23, 01:00 PMLANDraculaN Season 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 55.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Cache
23.3r
+14% KPR here
M2 Mirage
22.8r
-7% KPR here
Total
46.1r
2-0 sweep52.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)49.5%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)19.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 18.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 69.9% | |
| 15.5 Over | 68.2% | |
| 16.5 Over | 65.5% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 61.6% | |
| 18.5 Over | 56.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 16.5→offno change
- Pulled16Oct 23, 01:42 PM
- Back on board16 → 16Oct 23, 01:14 PM
- Pulled16Oct 23, 01:02 PM
- Moved down16.5 → 16Oct 23, 01:15 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 23, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
19.6
KPR
0.87
HS%
55.6%
K/D
1.34
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.66
HS%
59.5%
K/D
0.92
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
51.1%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
42.9%
K/D
1.03
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
51.5%
K/D
1.22
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.82
HS%
44.4%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 10 Cache 14-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 9 Cache 13-7 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 8 Cache 13-1 | 8 Dust2 22-20 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 7 Dust2 4-13 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 12 Dust2 19-15 | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 8 Dust2 13-5 | 10 Cache 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 15 Mirage 12-16 | 17 Cache 13-7 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 10 Dust2 13-8 | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 2 Anubis 7-13 | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 13 Cache 13-6 | 11 Anubis 19-17 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 4 Cache 4-13 | 8 Anubis 16-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 9 Inferno 13-6 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 7 Mirage 2-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | WBT | 10 Anubis 13-11 | 15 Cache 16-14 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | GenOne | 8 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 13-2 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | NT | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 15 Cache 16-13 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
