KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.52
Hit
51.4%
EV+
-10.9%
Edge
+0.5
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.13
Hit
56.3%
EV+
-2.6%
Edge
+1.1
L10
20%
Rifler
Jimpphat
Aurora vs The MongolZ
RISK · OVER 30
BEST OVER · UD 29.5PP30UD29.5
≈ L5 30.0 · L20 30.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 30 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±8.18
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
0/1 hit · avg 21 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 16-12 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
21
Under 30 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
30.5
9/20 hit at 30
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Jimpphat is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.664 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.7%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.52
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
51.4%
EV+
-10.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.4%
0 →
Learned
51.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 28-32
All players · Kills
54.6%337 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 47.2% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 45.2 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 22% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.8 kills vs line 30.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 57%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 29.8 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.52 vs line 30 → +0.52 (1.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 52.7% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.25
HS/Map
8.62
K/D
1.18
KPR
0.69
ADR
72.9
KAST
74%
HS%
56.6%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)15.7 · KPR 0.674 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.3 · KPR 0.703 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.664
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.1
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills31.05
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30. Model: 47.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~26 kills · 38r22.9%
Normal42.8%
~30 kills · 45r45.8%
Close maps22.8%
~33 kills · 48r58.9%
Overtime12.2%
~37 kills · 54r76.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
23.4r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.8r
+2% KPR here
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep52.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Over) · avg 29.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Over | 60% | |
| 29 Over | 55.9% | below BE |
| 30 Over | 51.4% | OFFERED |
| 31 Over | 47% | below BE |
| 32 Over | 42.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 30.5→30-0.5
- Back on board30.5 → 30Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- First seen30.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.67
HS%
58.9%
K/D
1.18
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
60.5%
K/D
1.22
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.82
HS%
54.9%
K/D
1.27
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.66
HS%
47.1%
K/D
1.27
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.74
HS%
69.2%
K/D
0.98
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 16 Inferno 16-12 | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 13 Anubis 8-13 | 35 Dust2 19-17 | 48 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 20 Inferno 10-13 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 18 Cache 13-11 | 13 Inferno 13-4 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 9 Cache 13-9 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 20 Inferno 11-13 | 12 Nuke 1-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 16 Anubis 13-6 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 18 Anubis 13-7 | 8 Cache 7-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 18 Dust2 13-9 | 21 Anubis 13-8 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 13 Dust2 8-13 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 18 Mirage 13-4 | 12 Nuke 7-13 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 16 Mirage 4-13 | 14 Dust2 10-13 | 30 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 15 Dust2 13-3 | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 4-13 | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 19 Anubis 13-7 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 15 Cache 13-7 | 24 Mirage 19-17 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 23 Nuke 13-8 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 16 Anubis 13-7 | 22 Inferno 16-19 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 8 Dust2 13-3 | 10 Inferno 13-5 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 20 Cache 13-7 | 19 Mirage 16-12 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
