KillsBetter playLean
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.02
Hit
62.5%
EV+
+8.3%
Edge
+5.5
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.15
Hit
51.4%
EV+
-11.0%
Edge
+0.7
L10
50%
Rifler · IGL
shalfey
GamerLegion vs Envy
LEAN · OVER 27.5
PP27.5
▼ L5 33.2 · L20 34.9
Hit rates at 27.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
80%
12/15
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±9.97
Previous meeting · vs Envy
No meeting with Envy in his last 15 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
—
no series
Online
34.9
12/15 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm shalfey is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 40.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.625 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50.5%) or blowout (24.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
33.02
Raw edge
+5.5
Cons. hit
62.5%
EV+
+8.3%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44
Line
27.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
62.5%
0 →
Learned
62.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
57.2%477 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- High form volatility
- Near the blowout zone — team 40% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 80.0% at this line
Game script fits · 44.0 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 25% (under 40%) · team 40% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 2.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 35.8 kills vs line 27.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.79, HS 49%. Next: vs Envy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 35.8 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 33.02 vs line 27.5 → +5.52 (20.1%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 44 rounds · 2-0 50.5% · OT 12.9%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
17.43
HS/Map
8.53
K/D
1.31
KPR
0.79
ADR
83.1
KAST
76.3%
HS%
48.9%
Multi-kill
20.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)14.3 · KPR 0.682 · 21r
Map 2 (Nuke)18.7 · KPR 0.815 · 23r
Required KPR to clear0.625
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.08
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.20%
Final projected kills33.02
Envy gives up (16 series)+4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27.5. Model: 71% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.7%
~28 kills · 37r47.8%
Normal52.1%
~33 kills · 45r72.2%
Close maps10.3%
~35 kills · 47r78.7%
Overtime12.9%
~40 kills · 53r89.6%
Match context
Oct 27, 3:00 PM CTLANTesla Cup 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 39.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 40% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Dust2
21r
-11% KPR here
M2 Nuke
23r
+6% KPR here
Total
44r
2-0 sweep50.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.2%
Overtime12.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 30 his-team maps + 20 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Over) · avg 35.8 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Over | 64.9% | |
| 26.5 Over | 63.4% | |
| 27.5 Over | 62.5% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Over | 61.4% | |
| 29.5 Over | 60% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 27.5→27.5no change
- First seen27.5Oct 25, 10:11 PM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.68
HS%
49.6%
K/D
1.11
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
20.6
KPR
0.87
HS%
52.8%
K/D
1.43
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.82
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.41
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
38.8%
K/D
1.11
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
22
KPR
0.96
HS%
40.9%
K/D
1.47
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.92
HS%
45.7%
K/D
1.4
Cache
1 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.88
HS%
57.1%
K/D
2.33
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | ex-RUSTEC | 21 Anubis 13-6 | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Butterfly | 11 Dust2 16-13 | 14 Nuke 11-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-RUSTEC | 23 Dust2 11-13 | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | ex-RUSTEC | 16 Ancient 8-13 | 14 Cache 13-3 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Iberian Soul | 12 Nuke 7-13 | 25 Mirage 17-19 | 37 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | Butterfly | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 26 Inferno 13-10 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-30 | ex-RUSTEC | 28 Inferno 13-11 | 34 Nuke 16-14 | 62 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | ex-RUSTEC | 23 Dust2 14-16 | 15 Ancient 5-13 | 38 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | ex-RUSTEC | 12 Dust2 7-13 | 14 Anubis 6-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 18 Ancient 13-5 | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | ex-RUSTEC | 18 Dust2 13-1 | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Omega | 21 Nuke 13-11 | 15 Dust2 7-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Black Phoenix | 14 Ancient 13-3 | 12 Inferno 9-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Leo | 23 Nuke 13-10 | 17 Dust2 13-10 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | ex-RUSTEC | 23 Nuke 13-11 | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ |
