KillsLean
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.85
Hit
49.4%
EV+
-7.6%
Edge
-2.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.76
Hit
54.4%
EV+
+1.8%
Edge
-1.7
L10
60%
Rifler
Lack1
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
LEAN · UNDER 28.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP28.5UD28.5
▲ L5 31.6 · L20 26.7
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.96
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
26.7
11/20 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Lack1 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 39.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.692 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.85
Raw edge
-2.6
Cons. hit
49.4%
EV+
-7.6%
Rating
2.4/10
Exp. rounds
41.2
Line
28.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
49.4%
0 →
Learned
49.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
44.2%514 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 41.2 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 39% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.1 kills vs line 29.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 57%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 26.1 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.85 vs line 28.5 → -2.65 (-9.3%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 41.2 rounds · 2-0 58.7% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.35
HS/Map
7.62
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.62
ADR
68.3
KAST
72.6%
HS%
57.1%
Multi-kill
14.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)11.2 · KPR 0.587 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)14.7 · KPR 0.671 · 22r
Required KPR to clear0.692
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.02
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.67%
Final projected kills25.85
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)+0.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 63.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.3%
~22 kills · 35r84.1%
Normal58.4%
~26 kills · 42r63.4%
Close maps10.5%
~28 kills · 44r57.1%
Overtime7.8%
~31 kills · 50r38.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 9:00 AM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 39.0%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 39% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Dust2
19.2r
-2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
22r
+13% KPR here
Total
41.2r
2-0 sweep58.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.3%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 26.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 43.5% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 46.5% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 49.4% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 54.1% | |
| 30.5 Under | 56.5% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 29.5→28.5-1
- Moved down29.5 → 28.5Oct 23, 05:30 PM
- Back on board29.5 → 29.5Oct 23, 07:55 AM
- Pulled29.5Oct 23, 07:54 AM
- First seen29.5Oct 23, 07:54 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.61
HS%
57.6%
K/D
0.87
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.72
HS%
56.6%
K/D
1.11
Cache
7 maps
Kills
10.9
KPR
0.54
HS%
61.8%
K/D
0.87
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
58.1%
K/D
0.9
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.61
HS%
46.3%
K/D
0.86
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.8
HS%
63.3%
K/D
1.44
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 21 Ancient 13-7 | 15 Dust2 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 20 Mirage 19-16 | 14 Cache 13-5 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 22 Dust2 10-13 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 15 Cache 13-9 | 14 Anubis 16-13 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Cache 13-0 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 9 Anubis 6-13 | 2 Dust2 0-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 8 Dust2 13-5 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 18 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Mirage 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 16 Anubis 6-13 | 18 Nuke 13-11 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 14 Anubis 13-7 | 8 Cache 13-9 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 13 Mirage 9-13 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 12 Dust2 13-3 | 23 Mirage 13-7 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Younglings | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-18 | 300FPS | 22 Mirage 16-14 | 7 Cache 13-10 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | TrafficPills | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 13 Nuke 13-1 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
