KillsRisk
Line
23.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.7
Hit
45.7%
EV+
-14.5%
Edge
-0.8
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.85
Hit
48.9%
EV+
-8.6%
Edge
-0.7
L10
60%
Rifler · IGL
magixx
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
RISK · UNDER 12.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP12.5UD12.5
▲ L5 13.4 · L20 12.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 12.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.81
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
12.2
12/20 hit at 12.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm magixx is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 79.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 12 HS or fewer (under ~25 kills at 52.2% HS): below 0.602 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
11.85
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
48.9%
EV+
-8.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.9%
0 →
Learned
48.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
45.4%251 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 39.8 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 80% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.9 headshots vs line 12.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 52%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.9 against a 12.5 line
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.85 vs line 12.5 → -0.65 (-5.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 12 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 60.6% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
11.68
HS/Map
6.1
K/D
0.82
KPR
0.56
ADR
70.1
KAST
70.4%
HS%
52.2%
Multi-kill
13.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)6.3 · KPR 0.604 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Mirage)5.6 · KPR 0.545 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.602
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.88
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.77%
Final projected kills22.7
× realistic HS% (52.2%)11.85
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 12.5. Model: 59.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~10 HS · 33r78.8%
Normal40.6%
~12 HS · 40r58.4%
Close maps27.2%
~13 HS · 43r50.2%
Overtime7.8%
~15 HS · 49r32.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 5:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 79.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 12 real matches) · kill rate +8% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.1r
-1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
19.7r
-11% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep60.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Under) · avg 12.9 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Under | 30.3% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 38.7% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 48.9% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Under | 54.4% | |
| 14.5 Under | 60.1% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→12.5no change
- First seen12.5Oct 23, 07:41 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.56
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.82
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
10.1
KPR
0.48
HS%
46.5%
K/D
0.71
Cache
7 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.56
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.95
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
9.8
KPR
0.45
HS%
59.3%
K/D
0.8
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.62
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.51
HS%
57.9%
K/D
0.78
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 5 Mirage 9-13 | 5 Anubis 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Anubis 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 4 Cache 5-13 | 5 Anubis 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 5 Nuke 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 13-8 | 1 Mirage 11-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 7 Nuke 13-8 | 7 Ancient 13-11 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Cache 13-5 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Cache 13-9 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 6 Ancient 13-8 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 4 Cache 10-13 | 5 Anubis 16-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 3 Ancient 13-9 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 9 Anubis 13-11 | 10 Nuke 14-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 5 Cache 9-13 | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 4 Ancient 13-3 | 10 Dust2 19-15 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
