CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.39
Hit
54.1%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
+1.9
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.43
Hit
53.2%
EV+
-0.5%
Edge
+0.9
L10
50%
k0gaSs
Rifler
k0gaSs
Team Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle Academy
53%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 19.5
▲ L5 24.4 · L20 20.5Risk · Edge +0.9 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 19.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±8.57
Previous meeting · vs Inner Circle Academy
No meeting with Inner Circle Academy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
20.5
9/20 hit at 19.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Veto confirmed — re-check map order
  • Confirm k0gaSs is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 19.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 54.5%
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 20+ HS (~34 kills at 59.4% HS): 0.665 KPR over ~49 rounds. His Kills line is 32.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (43.5%) or blowout (16.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
20.43
Raw edge
+0.9
Cons. hit
53.2%
EV+
-0.5%
Rating
2.7/10
Exp. rounds
49.4
Line
19.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.2%
0 →
Learned
53.2%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 17.5-21.5
All players · Headshots
49%145 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 49.4 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 17% (under 40%) · team 55% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 1.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.3 headshots vs line 19.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 59%. Next: vs Inner Circle Academy, Online.

Strongest: L10 average 22.3 against a 19.5 line

Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance

    The read
    Signal
    ALIGNED
    The call
    PASS
    Value
    NO VALUE
    • • Model 20.43 vs line 19.5 → +0.93 (4.8%)
    • • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
    • • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
    • • Expected 49.4 rounds · 2-0 43.5% · OT 16.7%
    Performance (last 40 maps)
    Kills/Map
    17.25
    HS/Map
    10.25
    K/D
    1.04
    KPR
    0.75
    ADR
    82
    KAST
    70.8%
    HS%
    59.4%
    Multi-kill
    19.8%
    Kills projection
    Map 1 (Ancient)11.1 · KPR 0.779 · 23.8r
    Map 2 (Anubis)9.3 · KPR 0.61 · 25.6r
    Required KPR to clear0.665
    Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.15
    Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.73%
    Final projected kills34.39
    × realistic HS% (59.4%)20.43
    Inner Circle Academy gives up (83 series)-3.7% vs norm
    Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
    Bars in colour cash the Over 19.5. Model: 54.3% before the safety haircut.
    4567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344line 19.5
    Lopsided maps16.9%
    ~17 HS · 42r33.6%
    Normal43.9%
    ~20 HS · 47r45.2%
    Close maps22.5%
    ~22 HS · 53r56.9%
    Overtime16.7%
    ~24 HS · 59r67.9%
    Match context
    Oct 23, 6:00 AM CTOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
    HLTV #1VRS #4HLTV #39VRS #30
    Team Spirit Academy 55%45% Inner Circle Academy
    Win chance source: Polymarket 54.5%
    Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
    Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 55% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
    M1 Ancient
    23.8r
    +7% KPR here
    M2 Anubis
    25.6r
    -16% KPR here
    Total
    49.4r
    2-0 sweep43.5%
    Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
    Overtime16.7%
    Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.9%

    2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

    Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Ancient / Anubis

    Recent Maps 1-2 form
    10 series · line 19.5 (Over) · avg 22.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
    19.5
    Nearby lines
    17.5 Over60.9%
    18.5 Over59.1%
    19.5 Over53.2%OFFERED
    20.5 Over50.5%below BE
    21.5 Over43.7%below BE
    Break-even per leg: 53.5%
    Becomes a PASS at: 19.5
    Line movement
    first 19.5→offno change
    1. Pulled19.5
      Oct 23, 06:12 AM
    2. First seen19.5
      Oct 22, 12:02 PM
    Map stats
    Nuke
    12 maps
    Kills
    17.3
    KPR
    0.8
    HS%
    59.1%
    K/D
    1.12
    Mirage
    11 maps
    Kills
    16.5
    KPR
    0.68
    HS%
    62.1%
    K/D
    0.94
    Ancient
    6 maps
    Kills
    19.5
    KPR
    0.83
    HS%
    58.1%
    K/D
    1.16
    Cache
    6 maps
    Kills
    18.7
    KPR
    0.79
    HS%
    60.7%
    K/D
    1.06
    Anubis
    3 maps
    Kills
    14
    KPR
    0.51
    HS%
    52.4%
    K/D
    0.69
    Dust2
    2 maps
    Kills
    14.5
    KPR
    0.91
    HS%
    55.2%
    K/D
    1.61
    Recent Maps 1-2 results
    DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
    2026-10-22GenOne3 Anubis 9-1312 Nuke 13-1115SplitUnder ✗
    2026-10-21Lavked25 Ancient 18-2219 Mirage 16-1444SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-10-19Betclic11 Nuke 13-910 Mirage 10-1321SplitOver ✓
    2026-10-18mellren17 Nuke 13-912 Mirage 10-1329SplitOver ✓
    2026-10-15The Last Resort7 Ancient 13-76 Anubis 13-613WUnder ✗
    2026-10-13BAKS11 Cache 11-1310 Nuke 6-1321LOver ✓
    2026-10-04FORZE Reload8 Mirage 8-138 Ancient 13-816SplitUnder ✗
    2026-10-04mellren9 Nuke 13-1110 Mirage 13-1119WUnder ✗
    2026-10-03Fire Flux13 Nuke 13-613 Anubis 20-2226SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-10-02MAYBE10 Cache 13-99 Nuke 13-1119WUnder ✗
    2026-10-01mellren11 Nuke 13-102 Mirage 5-1313SplitUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-29Phantom Academy9 Mirage 13-613 Cache 16-1322WOver ✓OT
    2026-09-27megoshort5 Ancient 5-138 Mirage 11-1313LUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-26MAYBE15 Mirage 16-1410 Ancient 13-825WOver ✓OT
    2026-09-24Phantom Academy13 Ancient 13-86 Nuke 13-519WUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-23Leo14 Cache 10-136 Nuke 1-1320LOver ✓BO
    2026-09-21Azuolas9 Nuke 16-127 Dust2 13-516WUnder ✗OTBO
    2026-09-19Just Players10 Nuke 10-139 Mirage 14-1619LUnder ✗OT
    2026-09-17Nexus9 Dust2 13-19 Cache 13-818WUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-15BAKS11 Mirage 11-1311 Cache 13-922SplitOver ✓
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