KillsBetter playRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.91
Hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.4%
Edge
+0.4
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.03
Hit
42.6%
EV+
-26.3%
Edge
+0.0
L10
60%
Rifler
Omichella
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
RISK · OVER 24.5
PP24.5
▼ L5 24.0 · L20 25.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 24.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.3
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
0/1 hit · avg 22 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 6-13 · Anubis 13-11 · Split
22
Under 24.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
21
1/5 hit at 24.5
Online
27
11/15 hit at 24.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Omichella is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 25+ kills: 0.6 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (65.4%) or blowout (40.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
24.91
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
24.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.5%
0 →
Learned
46.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
55.7%174 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 49% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: blowout 40% (under 40%)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · blowout 40% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (22.54) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 23.5 kills vs line 24.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 58%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 23.5 against a 24.5 line
- 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.91 vs line 24.5 → +0.41 (1.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 65.4% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.75
HS/Map
7.38
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.57
ADR
60.1
KAST
69.7%
HS%
57.8%
Multi-kill
13.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)9.5 · KPR 0.488 · 19.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)13 · KPR 0.636 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.6
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.01
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.05%
Final projected kills22.54
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 24.5. Model: 49% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.4%
~21 kills · 35r27%
Normal28.8%
~27 kills · 44r63.1%
Close maps23%
~27 kills · 44r61.7%
Overtime7.8%
~31 kills · 50r79.6%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 20.0% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Dust2
19.9r
-9% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
+18% KPR here
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep65.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Over) · avg 23.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Over | 55.8% | below BE |
| 23.5 Over | 51.2% | below BE |
| 24.5 Over | 46.5% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Over | 42% | below BE |
| 26.5 Over | 37.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 24.5→24.5no change
- First seen24.5Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.5
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.78
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.71
HS%
54.6%
K/D
1.13
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
54%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
62.1%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.85
HS%
72.7%
K/D
1.83
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 16 Anubis 13-11 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 15 Inferno 13-3 | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Abyssal | 13 Inferno 8-13 | 15 Nuke 7-13 | 28 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | FlyQuest | 10 Anubis 10-13 | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 18 Inferno 8-13 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Rooster | 10 Anubis 6-13 | 16 Nuke 13-11 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Abyssal | 18 Inferno 13-11 | 18 Dust2 12-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4 Ancient 4-13 | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 10 Dust2 8-13 | 11 Inferno 1-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-31 | Arcade | 11 Nuke 13-3 | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 8 Nuke 5-13 | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Rooster | 15 Anubis 13-4 | 17 Nuke 19-15 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | LFO 8 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 15 Dust2 13-3 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | Abyssal | 19 Ancient 13-1 | 16 Anubis 13-8 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-12 | Mindfreak | 16 Inferno 13-6 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-11 | Abyssal | 17 Ancient 7-13 | 14 Anubis 0-1 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-10 | Mindfreak | 15 Nuke 13-10 | 11 Anubis 13-4 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-06 | Abyssal | 11 Mirage 13-0 | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Time Waves | 28 Inferno 19-17 | 14 Nuke 13-3 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-19 | FlyQuest | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 8 Anubis 5-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
