CS2 PROP LAB
V1.0
KillsLean
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.84
Hit
58.1%
EV+
+0.7%
Edge
+3.3
L10
60%
Loading…
Kiryasoo
AWPer
Kiryasoo
Team Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle Academy
58%HIT CHANCE
LEAN · OVER 31.5
≈ L5 32.8 · L20 34.1
Hit rates at 31.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±9.04
Previous meeting · vs Inner Circle Academy
No meeting with Inner Circle Academy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
34.1
13/20 hit at 31.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Veto confirmed — re-check map order
  • Confirm Kiryasoo is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 32
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 54.5%
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.638 KPR over ~49 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (3.5%) or blowout (16.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
34.84
Raw edge
+3.3
Cons. hit
58.1%
EV+
+0.7%
Rating
5.4/10
Exp. rounds
49.4
Line
31.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.1%
-8.7 →
Learned
49.4%
learning 0.5x
Same-line track record · Over 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
56.3%167 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 4% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (35.71) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 34.4 kills vs line 31.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 33%. Next: vs Inner Circle Academy, Online.

Strongest: L10 average 34.4 against a 31.5 line

Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance

    The read
    Signal
    ALIGNED
    The call
    SMALL EDGE ONLY
    Value
    THIN
    • • Model 34.84 vs line 31.5 → +3.34 (10.6%)
    • • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
    • • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
    • • Expected 49.4 rounds · 2-0 3.5% · OT 16.7%
    Performance (last 40 maps)
    Kills/Map
    17.07
    HS/Map
    5.58
    K/D
    1.19
    KPR
    0.71
    ADR
    73.7
    KAST
    71.5%
    HS%
    32.7%
    Multi-kill
    18.1%
    Kills projection
    Map 1 (Ancient)16.2 · KPR 0.667 · 23.8r
    Map 2 (Anubis)19.5 · KPR 0.746 · 25.6r
    Required KPR to clear0.638
    Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.97
    Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+2.11%
    Final projected kills35.71
    Inner Circle Academy gives up (83 series)-2.8% vs norm
    Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
    Bars in colour cash the Over 31.5. Model: 64.4% before the safety haircut.
    1517192123252729313335373941434547495153555759line 31.5
    Lopsided maps16.9%
    ~29 kills · 42r36.1%
    Normal43.9%
    ~33 kills · 47r56.2%
    Close maps22.5%
    ~37 kills · 53r74.4%
    Overtime16.7%
    ~42 kills · 59r87.4%
    Match context
    Oct 23, 11:00 AMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
    HLTV #1VRS #3HLTV #30VRS #28
    Team Spirit Academy 55%45% Inner Circle Academy
    Win chance source: Polymarket 54.5%
    Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
    Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 55% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
    M1 Ancient
    23.8r
    -6% KPR here
    M2 Anubis
    25.6r
    +5% KPR here
    Total
    49.4r
    2-0 sweep3.5%
    Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
    Overtime16.7%
    Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.9%

    Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Ancient / Anubis

    Recent Maps 1-2 form
    10 series · line 31.5 (Over) · avg 34.4 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
    31.5
    Nearby lines
    29.5 Over63.5%
    30.5 Over59.9%
    31.5 Over58.1%OFFERED
    32.5 Over54.2%below BE
    33.5 Over51.6%below BE
    Break-even per leg: 57.7%
    Becomes a PASS at: 32
    Line movement
    first 31.5→offno change
    1. Pulled31.5
      Oct 23, 11:12 AM
    2. First seen31.5
      Oct 22, 05:02 PM
    Map stats
    Nuke
    12 maps
    Kills
    16.3
    KPR
    0.75
    HS%
    33.7%
    K/D
    1.23
    Mirage
    11 maps
    Kills
    17.8
    KPR
    0.74
    HS%
    32.7%
    K/D
    1.12
    Ancient
    6 maps
    Kills
    15.2
    KPR
    0.65
    HS%
    36.3%
    K/D
    1.03
    Cache
    6 maps
    Kills
    16
    KPR
    0.68
    HS%
    29.2%
    K/D
    1.12
    Anubis
    3 maps
    Kills
    21.7
    KPR
    0.78
    HS%
    33.8%
    K/D
    1.35
    Dust2
    2 maps
    Kills
    19.5
    KPR
    1.22
    HS%
    25.6%
    K/D
    2.44
    Recent Maps 1-2 results
    DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
    2026-10-22GenOne11 Anubis 9-1321 Nuke 13-1132SplitOver ✓
    2026-10-21Lavked26 Ancient 18-2217 Mirage 16-1443SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-10-19Betclic15 Nuke 13-914 Mirage 10-1329SplitUnder ✗
    2026-10-18mellren16 Nuke 13-914 Mirage 10-1330SplitUnder ✗
    2026-10-15The Last Resort13 Ancient 13-717 Anubis 13-630WUnder ✗
    2026-10-13BAKS11 Cache 11-137 Nuke 6-1318LUnder ✗
    2026-10-04FORZE Reload14 Mirage 8-1324 Ancient 13-838SplitOver ✓
    2026-10-04mellren17 Nuke 13-1117 Mirage 13-1134WOver ✓
    2026-10-03Fire Flux17 Nuke 13-637 Anubis 20-2254SplitOver ✓OT
    2026-10-02MAYBE16 Cache 13-920 Nuke 13-1136WOver ✓
    2026-10-01mellren21 Nuke 13-1013 Mirage 5-1334SplitOver ✓BO
    2026-09-29Phantom Academy13 Mirage 13-625 Cache 16-1338WOver ✓OT
    2026-09-27megoshort9 Ancient 5-1322 Mirage 11-1331LUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-26MAYBE25 Mirage 16-1411 Ancient 13-836WOver ✓OT
    2026-09-24Phantom Academy8 Ancient 13-815 Nuke 13-523WUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-23Leo14 Cache 10-138 Nuke 1-1322LUnder ✗BO
    2026-09-21Azuolas26 Nuke 16-1221 Dust2 13-547WOver ✓OTBO
    2026-09-19Just Players13 Nuke 10-1327 Mirage 14-1640LOver ✓OT
    2026-09-17Nexus18 Dust2 13-118 Cache 13-836WOver ✓BO
    2026-09-15BAKS20 Mirage 11-1312 Cache 13-932SplitOver ✓
    KILLS · HEADSHOTS · MAPS 1-2

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